Tyler’s DFS Tips – NFL Week 9 by Tyler Arthur
My Tips This Week
Better matchup than people think.
The Atlanta Falcons have had a tough go of it this year, but fantasy players know all too well that their record doesn’t reflect their fantasy production. Despite the struggles as an NFL team they are gold for season-long and DFS alike. QB Matt Ryan has been mostly consistent thus far, and this week I like his matchup more than most people do. The Denver defense is solid, but their biggest strength is found in their run-defense. What this creates a pass-heavy game script for Ryan, who should have all of his weapons available. At $6,400 I am pretty much calling this all but a lock for 30 pass completions, and in games where Ryan reaches that threshold, he averages 28 fantasy points in DK’s scoring system.
It’s finally time.
Ladies, gentlemen, Raiders fans… It’s time. Derek Carr had an absolutely phenomenal stretch from Weeks 2 through 7, and everybody was hyped for him last week. I avoided him, and luckily so, because the weather completely ruined that game, but now I’m going to jump in when everybody else is mad that he had a down week. He costs just $5,700 despite the phenomenal matchup with the Chargers. This is a big game, and the Raiders need to keep up their momentum, with divisional games being particularly key. In a week where many of the popular options at a lower price are unavailable, I think Carr is going to be a very good choice, with his mixture of safety and ceiling.
Don’t let CMC tempt you, Cook is the RB1 this week.
After an incredibly long absence, Christian McCaffrey is back and everybody will be rightfully excited. I am going to leave him to everybody else, though, and I’m taking Dalvin Cook over him, at a $300 discount. Cook leads all running backs with 28.7 fantasy points per game (literally quarterback numbers) and has an absolutely elite matchup – the best physically possible based on this season so far – with the Lions. The Vikings are 2-5, so they will be more than happy to try and take the W over their divisional rivals to tie their records. If they’re going to win any games this year, it’ll be on the back of their superstar RB. At $8,200 there is quite the price tag on Cook, but he’s the best RB with a perfect matchup and I’m taking him over CMC this week.
Great volume, upside and floor built in.
The Texans had their bye this week and all of the talk has been about Will Fuller and the trade rumours, but I’m excited to see David Johnson pick up where he left off going into the bye. The veteran running back isn’t as exciting as he used to be but his workload in this offense is legit and he has the ability to make plays in both the running and receiving game, with near enough 20 opportunities in most games. This week he is traveling to Jacksonville and I think that this match up makes his involvement even more valuable. At just $5,600, the floor of his receptions and the ceiling of the touchdowns make his upside great too.
BONUS PICK: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Season-long stress doesn’t have to come to DFS.
If you’re a redraft fantasy football player, the Kansas City rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire is probably one of the players who you’d be worried to have and tentative to trade for. And understandably so; Le’Veon Bell has been added to the equation, the offense is leaning lots on the pass, and he has had just 8 and 6 carries in the past two weeks respectively, and his fantasy production has been poor. This week, though, I see a matchup that I can’t ignore. The Chiefs are hosting the Carolina Panthers at Arrowhead, and I am expecting a bounceback game. At just $6,100 you can afford to put CEH alongside some other great RB options and other people will be scared off of him despite the incredible upside this week.
Great matchup, reliable volume.
This week the Pittsburgh Steelers are traveling to Dallas, and while that would have sounded like an absolute battle for the ages six or seven weeks ago, it is now looking like it will be just sad to watch, honestly. The Cowboys secondary is as weak as they come, and the Steelers passing game has a plethora of receiving threats, with Chase Claypool arriving onto the scene this year, and Diontae Johnson a popular value play, but I am going with JuJu Smith-Schuster this week. Anyone in this team can have a big game, but JuJu is the guy who has been most reliably involved, especially in the past two weeks. Off the back of 22 targets in the previous two games, his price has risen to $6,200 this week, but I am willing to pay that for this plus matchup.
Consistency personified, with a good matchup.
One of the most consistent players in all of fantasy football, Allen Robinson is continually impressing despite the poor quarterback play that he has spent his whole career cursed with. He is averaging 17 fantasy points per game, and he gets 7+ targets almost every single week, with some of the best hands in the league and enough talent to overcome the bad throws and inconsistency. In Week 9, the Bears are traveling to Tennessee, which is a great matchup, and his price of $6,900 is actually a slightly reduced price from last week against the Saints, where he got 21 points.
Phenomenal value, elevated role.
Last week Kenny Golladay got a hip injury and gave fantasy owners a big fat old goose egg in his points column. He will be missing at least one week with this injury, and more likely two or three, so the Lions passing game will have to shift its volume elsewhere. Everybody naturally starts looking at Marvin Jones, who will cost you $5,100 off the back of his 18.9 point game, but he scored two TD’s to make that score up, with just 39 yards. His namesake teammate, Marvin Hall is only $3,800 and he caught one more ball (on the same targets) but for 113 yards. So he got 0.6 less points, but in a much more reliable way, and without a single score. Seems like a no brainer to me. Take the cheaper Marvin and hope for similar production this week in a great matchup against the Vikings defensive backfield.
Finding some consistency, targets up for grabs.
At a position that has been downright awful for fantasy this year, T.J. Hockenson has started to show some legitimate fantasy consistency over the course of this season, and is a top 5 tight end on the season, deserving of his increased price tag at $5,100 – which is actually pretty reasonable to get up to. With Golladay injured, Hockenson has an opportunity to really build on his volume – last week, when Golladay got hurt, Hock ended the game with 10 targets, and he turned them into 7 receptions for 65 yards. I am really interested to see how the target share breaks down for Detroit this week, but I honestly think that Hockenson is the guy to own in this offense this week.
The discount is finally here.
This one might feel a little bit scary, but I’m going to run out Mark Andrews this week. I know, he’s had two bad games in a row, and Lamar Jackson has disappointed fantasy owners this year, but Andrews’ price dropping down to $4,800 is a serious green light for me. The matchup with the Colts is not ideal, but if he can get 5+ targets I think that the value is just too high for me to ignore. Go for it, and let’s hope that Baltimore’s passing game is ready to bounce back in a pretty tough spot. One thing we know for sure is that Andrews is a huge TD threat, and has upside like very few TE’s especially for one who is so cheap.
Washington Football Team
One of the most pleasant surprises of 2020, the Washington defense has been genuinely awesome this year. They aren’t some elite unit full of superstars like the Steelers, and they haven’t had a godsent schedule like the Colts, but they have been absolutely killing it for fantasy. This week the blessing that is the NFC East returns and they get a matchup against the New York Giants. The visitors have looked atrocious all year, and the Football Team has an opportunity to let their pass rushers shine. I am expecting multiple sacks and some turnover upside. At a price of $3,400 they aren’t exactly ‘cheap’ but they are in a great spot and I think they have an opportunity to return on that investment without a doubt.
Justin Herbert vs Las Vegas – QB – $6,800
Chris Carson @ Buffalo – RB – $6,500
Antonio Gibson vs New York Giants – RB – $5,800
Stefon Diggs vs Seattle – WR – $7,400
Justin Jefferson vs Detroit – WR – $6,100
Noah Fant @ Atlanta – TE – $4,600