Tyler’s DFS Tips – NFL Week 7 by Tyler Arthur
My Tips This Week
Great matchup, not too expensive.
It’s a sad week for people who, like me, love playing Josh Allen for fantasy, because it is the first time he’s over $6,000. Now for the record, I genuinely think this week is the start of an absolute tear for Allen and the Bills, so his price might not be going down anytime soon, but this week he is hosting the Dolphins, so if you’re ever going to pay $6,500, it’s probably now. The offense runs through Allen because he is great at both rushing and passing, and I am hoping to see him make it into the end zone again. The one thing that you have to worry about is the game script, if the Buffalo side is up by 14 all of a sudden, they start running and it makes it tougher for Allen to put up points.
Perfect matchup, time to bounce back.
Last week was bad for Jared Goff, I’m not going to question that. This matchup is different though, very different. The Falcons are absolutely incredible as a matchup, because they throw the ball constantly, put up enough points to make you do the same, and they have an awful and injured secondary. Goff’s price is at $6,200 and there’s a high chance that Gurley doesn’t play or is at least limited. I like the Rams receivers in this matchup, and Goff has a great chance for a bounceback week.
Great value, solid matchup.
There is one thing that trumps all in fantasy football – volume is king. Any player who is in the NFL and who touch the ball over 20 times in a game is going to have a chance to get something done. Chris Carson of the Seattle Seahawks is one of the players who has volume that you can trust, and who makes things happen with it. Averaging 4.3 yards a game is a good start, but when you can keep that up while getting 25+ touches week in and week out, you have a great fantasy option. Carson’s price is still only $6,500, which is more than it has been all year to be fair, but he’s a home matchup with an overrated Ravens D and he’s been over 20 fantasy points for the past three weeks.
Josh Jacobs – Starting O Line back, run-heavy matchup, cheap as chips.
This is a pick that would be more difficult if not for the price, but I like Josh Jacobs this week. The Green Bay Packers have a very solid passing defense, and they’ve been a good opponent to running backs this year, so when you give an electric player like Jacobs that matchup and a $5,000 price tag off his bye, I can’t ignore it. If I had to get closer to the six thousand range, I’d be less locked in, but I think the value is great and he hasn’t even fully been integrated into the offense in terms of the passing game yet. I’m not so sure that the Raiders will even have to win the game for Jacobs to be successful, and his price gives you access to solid volume and touchdown upside at a discount.
His favourite matchup?
I refuse to make a lineup this week that doesn’t have T.Y Hilton in it. I’m usually very analytical in my research, and you guys get numbers and trends and matchups in my article each week. This time, just once, we’re going full narrative. T.Y Hilton loves playing against Houston. In his last three meaningful games against the Texans (I’m ignoring the week 17 game from 2017), he has absolutely dominated. Week 9 2017: 5 receptions for 175 yards and 2 Touchdowns. Week 4 2018: 4 receptions for 115 yards. Week 14 2018: 9 receptions for 199 yards. I could go further back, too.
These numbers are straight out of Madden. You know when you get a new card on Ultimate Team and want to test it out? T.Y Hilton absolutely murders the Texans and I don’t even know why, but I don’t care. At a price of just $5,900, if Hilton can put up 100+ yards and maybe snag a touchdown, you’re getting great value, and I’m starting him everywhere I can.
Great Value, TD upside.
There is a lot to like about Mike Williams, particularly the way that they use him in the red zone. Hunter Henry’s return has scared people off and they assume that’s where all of the TD’s will go from now on, but that obviously isn’t the case. It looks like the DK price is assuming the same, and that’s why I like Williams. He’s only $4,900 so you can save money and still have some form of floor – he’s been getting 7+ targets for the last three weeks, and has put up 10+ points in most of his games even without scoring yet – but also has TD upside. If Williams scores, all of a sudden you have some nice points for cheap. The matchup with Tennessee is a pretty tough one in general, but there will be opportunities and you buy Williams for the TD chances. I’m liking Hunter Henry but this is a great way to go to that team without going the more obvious route.
Don’t be scared off from one week.
I told you about Goff, and I shouldn’t have to but I’m going to give the confidence back on Kupp, too. Last week will have scared people off, and because of the much higher price, people will be worried to jump back on with Cooper Kupp. At $7,400, Kupp is still an elite player and has the same fantastic matchup as Goff. I am happy to pay up and the stack with Goff and Kupp is going to be strong this week if things go back to normal. There is a simple fact that the Falcons can’t stop the pass, and I’m hoping that he can get back to his 30-odd point range.
The literal perfect matchup.
Returning from injury, the New York Giants get Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram back this week. Both are elite fantasy players, but only one is a tight end playing against the Cardinals. If you listen to the Daft Kings podcast or read my articles each week, you know the drill by now. I’d play basically any human being who is a TE against Arizona, so the fact that the most athletic tight end in the league is there makes me very excited. This will be an insanely popular pick, so be aware of that – but at $6,500 I’m strongly considering getting on this pick.
They haven’t changed the price, grab him while you can.
This is a simple pick. Hunter Henry had a big game on Monday night, scoring 33 points on 8 receptions and 100 yards with 2 touchdowns. But it was on Monday night. So, his price hasn’t been properly adjusted. Henry is only $4,000 even off the back of a big week, and he’s back. If Henry can snag a TD again, the upside adds on top of the floor which is built into his massive involvement in the offense. I’m expecting the 10+ point floor to be consistent for as long as Henry is healthy, and I expect the price to rise over the next week, so I’m getting him here while I can.
We’re going for a risky pick here. It’s scary, but we are doing it. We’re playing the game here, saving money and seeing how much of an impact one player can really make. I’m actually going for the Arizona Cardinals. Patrick Peterson is back, and the matchup is good, so we’re just gonna go ahead and do it. The Cardinals face the Giants, which is a pretty good matchup, and I’m hoping that Jones makes a couple of ‘oh crap that’s Pat P’ throws that could turn into an interception. At just $2,400, the price is low enough that I’m willing to go there. It’s somewhat risky, but I’m leaning that way, just because I hate everything else that’s below $3,000. Wish me luck.
QB – Matt Ryan vs Los Angeles – $6,300
RB – Devin Singletary vs Miami – $5,400
RB – Tevin Coleman @ Washington – $5,600
WR – D.J Chark @ Cincinnati – $6,000
WR – Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs Oakland – $5,200
TE – Gerald Everett @ Atlanta – $3,700