Tyler’s DFS Tips – NFL Week 5 by Tyler Arthur
My Tips This Week
Kyler Murray – Stack potential, TD upside.
I love the Cardinals stack this week, as you will find out throughout the rest of this article, and Kyler Murray is of course the staple of that stack. At $6,300 he is fairly expensive, but there is a reason for that. The matchup in Cincinnati is just so good. Obviously when stacking, you could go for a two-player or three, but I actually don’t mind running Murray out there on his own, just because he has the rushing upside and could score a TD.
Tom Brady – Great[est of all time] match up.
Tom Brady is good, Washington is bad. It’s basically that simple. There is less upside if they start running the ball once they take the lead, but the Patriots don’t mind throwing even when they’re up, just because they can. It’s $6,500 to put the GOAT in your lineup, and although there are cheaper options, Brady has the somewhat unconventional upside, even though this definitely isn’t a conventionally targetable matchup for Brady.
[Bonus] Melvin Gordon – If you’re feeling ballsy…
The Chargers RB is no longer holding out. At just $7,000, if Melvin Gordon picks up exactly where he left off, he’ll be great. But beware, there is absolutely no guarantee that this happens. Obviously, if he hits, that price will be higher next week. Obviously, it isn’t ideal that you’re essentially going in blind, but we can only get the discount once, if he gets back to normal. Gordon is a good play if you are throwing together a few different lineups, try him in one with some upside around him and see what you can do.
Leonard Fournette – Volume is king.
He carried it 29 times last week… 29. Two-nine. When you rush a ball that many times, it is impossible to not be a good fantasy asset. There is a very important thing for people to remember, you don’t always have to be flash. This week Leonard Fournette costs just $6,400, and Carolina is a beatable team, if the Jags offense gets going. I look forward to seeing him keep going with this kind of volume, and try and build up to the consistency we need.
David Johnson – Good volume, great player.
The Arizona Cardinals love throwing the ball, the Bengals are awful. Christian Kirk is out. Combining these things makes David Johnson a great fit, especially at a very reasonable $7,500. As I mentioned with Kyler, the stack is in play and I like DJ as my RB1 this week, paired with one of the other two tips below, as a really strong running back group. The Bengals D will try its best but I’m very confident in Johnson having a solid floor, and a great ceiling too.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling – Adams out? MVS in.
When Davante Adams is not playing, Marquez Valdes-Scantling is very valuable. You can even go Geronimo Allison, but I like MVS better. He is more expensive, at $5,600, but he is a better player with more expected volume. I would be very surprised to see MVS with less than 5 receptions this week, and if he snags a TD it will be great value. Any wide receiver of Aaron Rodgers has upside on a weekly basis, but giving him the boost of extra volume makes him a must start for me.
Larry Fitzgerald – Fairly expensive, but huge volume upside.
I am excited for this one. I haven’t played Larry yet this year, but it’s time. With the positive Bengals matchup, and Christian Kirk missing, when the ball isn’t in David Johnson’s hands – all of a sudden the ball is in Larry Fitz’s hands. At $6,000 you have to pay a fair amount, but he should be looking at a minimum of 7 targets this week against a bad D, which has some upside built into it, even without the lack of other weapons.
Will Fuller – It’s going to happen eventually.
Deshaun Watson missed last week, but he knows it, and Will Fuller’s upside will not often be higher than when facing who’s left of the Falcons defense. The fact that his QB is going into this week actively hoping to fix up his deep ball, and with the price of Fuller at just $4,500 against a nice matchup. I think that Fuller is going to be very popular this week, so if you want to go contrarian [Robby Anderson is the same price] I get it, but there’s a reason why Fuller is going to be so common.
Darren Waller – I love it, but this is a bad matchup… In theory.
The Bears scare people. Everyone avoids them, but they don’t have to – Darren Waller is averaging 9.25 targets per week, but let’s just say this straight up… His highest target game (14, with 13 receptions) was against the best defense they’ve faced so far, in Minnesota. At the start of the year he was cheap and I played him, well now he’s $5,000, against the Bears and I’m still right here. It doesn’t matter he’s against the Bears, he has a safe floor.
Tyler Eifert – I hate it, but this is the matchup.
There really is a gross feeling as I say this, but I am happy (if I need to) going Eifert, solely because he’s against the Cardinals. At only $3,300, there is no way he can completely screw up your team, and this is the only time all year you can roll him out. As you can tell, I’ll avoid this where I can, but it would be stupid not to acknowledge how obvious this play is. If you get burned, at least he’s cheap, if you get 10+ points, it’s good value.
Either Josh Allen doesn’t play so it’s a good matchup, or Josh Allen does play, so it’s a good matchup. At $3,000, you can’t go wrong here with the Tennessee Titans defense. There are teams with more upside but I actually really like this price point for a defense that has proved itself to have some real turnover upside.
QB – Jameis Winston @ New Orleans – $6,200
RB – Le’Veon Bell @ Philadelphia – $6,800
RB – James White @ Washington – $5,000
WR – Chris Godwin @ New Orleans – $6,900
WR – Josh Gordon @ Washington – $6,100
TE – Jimmy Graham @ Dallas – $4,300