Tyler’s DFS Tips – NFL Week 5 by Tyler Arthur
My Tips This Week
Rookie showing some consistency.
The Cincinnati Bengals have had an interesting start to the season. They are 1-2-1 with those two losses both being close losses, and rookie quarterback Joe Burrow has put up an average of 22.1 fantasy points. With three 300-yard games in a row, Joe Burrow has been a top-10 fantasy QB in regular formats, and on Draft Kings that bonus is gonna keep hitting in this offense, and I’m expecting to see him continue this week against Baltimore. I’m expecting Lamar Jackson to play, which means the Bengals should have to pass the ball and the points will keep coming for Burrow. At $6,000 you can have the discount that has been afforded to the rookie, but he has a decent floor and the Ravens matchup should force him to pass more, like he did in Week 2, when he put up 28.5 points. Alsoas a bonus tip, you have multiple different stacking options, with Tee Higgins offering a budget duo, and Tyler Boyd presenting a solid option in the mid-tier pricing – I can’t tip anyone to use AJ Green right now, sorry.
BOB is gone. Prove it game.
I think this is going to be fun. Bill O’Brien is gone, and now I think it’s time for a job interview. The Texans have to bring in a new head coach and general manager, and I think that this week is going to be the start of a long attempt to advertise themselves for their prospective applicants. Without BOB playcalling, I think Deshaun Watson is going to have a good opportunity to take the reigns on this offense, and put up some fantasy points. Watson has a floor of 16-18 points, and he hasn’t reached his ceiling yet this year. The matchup this week is a good one, against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and I think that at $6,900 he offers more bang for your buck than if you pay up to the very top tier of QB’s.
Great matchup, talented player.
As much as it pains me to say it, the Las Vegas Raiders aren’t very good at defense. Not run defense, not pass defense. Especially not tackling. The Kansas City Chiefs have the pleasure of that matchup in Week 5, and while a lot of DFS players will be excited to target the passing game, but I think that rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire is going to be one of the biggest benefactors from this matchup. He has looked good, but hasn’t really truly reached his ceiling yet. He’s averaging 16.6 fantasy points a game, but he has only scored 20 points once, and I think he hits that again this week, and with serious upside beyond that point. He will cost you $6,800, which is a pretty affordable price considering his legit RB1 opportunity and the role he has in this superpowered KC offense.
He’s not McCaffrey, but he’s doing a great job.
If there’s one completely random storyline in this NFL season that makes absolutely no sense – no I’m not talking about the fact that an NFC East team is going to get into the playoffs – it’s the fact that the 0-2 Carolina Panther suddenly started winning after they lost Christian McCaffrey, their superstar franchise running back. Part of the reason for this success is because Mike Davis has stepped up and performed genuinely well in his absence. He’s been the starter for the last two weeks, but he has had three weeks in a row with 15+ fantasy points, and if you remove week one where he didn’t get a single touch, he’s averaging 20.2 points in PPR. And the PPR element is important. In an offense built for CMC, Mike Davis has stepped up, and commanded a frankly ridiculous 23 targets in three games, and literally has more receiving yards than rushing yards – and one touchdown of each variety. In this game against the Atlanta Falcons I foresee a lot of passing, and Mike Davis is going to be involved when they do. His price is way up after a couple of fantastic weeks, but he deserves it, and I think his $6,400 price tag is worth it due to his incredible involvement. Also, Reggie Bonnafon got hurt, and he was the closest (but still distant) competition Mike Davis had in the backfield. Teddy Bridgewater is probably going to be a popular pick this week, but if he’s going to pass it to Davis 5+ times I’ll take that and the carries too.
BONUS PICK: Antonio Gibson
Why the hell is he $5k?
Alright, let me make this super simple. The Washington Football Team are not very good, and they benched so they might even get worse… Right? But you can’t ignore the fact that Kyle Allen came from the team who threw the ball at Christian McCaffrey a million times. I think Antonio Gibson is going to be able to get a couple more targets than he has been and that will only increase the already solid floor. Last week, Gibson had a great week against the Baltimore Ravens, who are a good defense, and now he’s playing against the Rams, who will force Kyle Allen to get the ball out of his hands quickly. At $5,000, Gibson’s price has hardly been adjusted despite him having a touchdown for three weeks in a row and an increasing role in the passing game.
As I mentioned earlier, the Carolina Panthers have been very unpredictable and their season hasn’t gone how anybody expected. Even more surprising than their randomly inverted winning without CMC record – somehow – is the fact that Robby Anderson is their most productive wide receiver. This isn’t a one-week wonder, either. After Anderson’s explosive 28.4 fantasy point game against the Raiders I wanted to see if it would last, and it actually has. In Week 2 he had another 20-point game, and has continued to impress through the first quarter of the season. He is averaging 8.5 targets a game – yes, I said averaging – and is the best fantasy WR on a team with everyone’s fantasy football sweetheart DJ Moore, who has really struggled through the first month. Now, Anderson gets to go and face the Atlanta Falcons defense, and it could honestly get ugly. I love Teddy Bridgewater in this matchup, and I think stacking him could be very popular, DJ Moore is 100 more to pay for, but I’d rather have Robby Anderson in this matchup, with his high volume and deep speed offering both floor and ceiling against a struggling defense, in a game script that should involve a lot of points and a lot of passes.
Underrated, try not to have recency bias.
Sometimes when Draft Kings put their prices on a player, you can see that something is wrong, and that is what happened in Week 2, when I tipped Diontae Johnson in my article at a ridiculously low price of $4,500 and he had a phenomenal game, putting up 23.2 fantasy points. In Week 3, Johnson got knocked out of the game and spent a week in the concussion protocol, and working through a minor toe injury. However, after having the week off where he should have been playing the Titans, Johnson and the Steelers are now ready to go against one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL (who are leading their division, by the way), the Philadelphia Eagles. Philadelphia have had a rough start to the season, but one bright spot they have is that their offseason acquisition of Darius Slay actually looks pretty damn good, he has played well and is a featured part of their defensive gameplan, playing lockdown man at a high level. I think this is great news for Diontae Johnson, who despite his awesome showing when healthy, is still at a super-affordable $5,600. I’m going to back Slay to keep a lid on JuJu Smith-Schuster, and see if Diontae Johnson can pick up where he left off after his 23 targets in the first two games earned him the bump in price. Fantasy football players have too much recency bias, avoid that and profit from the results.
He’s back (as long as his team is)
After an incredibly disappointing start to the year, with an injury before the end of his second-year debut, AJ Brown has yet to return to action. However, his team’s off-field issues with the COVID-19 situation, have meant that he’s actually only missed two games, and now in Week 5 he’s looking set to return at a discounted price of just $5,400. If Brown is healthy, he is going to be a great player, and if the Titans can get on the field again without any more pandemic-related issues, and the team can play their game against Buffalo, I think he will be an immediate start. His return does likely pit him up against Tre’Davious White, but I think Brown is talented enough to get it done, and all it takes is a handful of catches for Brown to blow a slate wide open. In Week 1 he got 8 targets before he could even finish the game, and even those targets came in a very quick burst after a slow start, so I believe in the volume, and I will be plugging this value into my lineup as long as the team can play.
I’ve missed him.
Please never leave me again, Jonnu. The tight end position is a barren wasteland in fantasy football in recent years, however there are always players who are on the fringe that you can pick up and hope that they hit. A tight end I’ve been very high on, waiting for him to become the starter, is Jonnu Smith of the Tennessee Titans. This year he’s now finally the de facto starter with nobody else threatening his position, and boom. He was the TE1 in fantasy football through the first couple of weeks of the season and I was taking a celebratory lap. Then COVID happened. The Titans being gone not only removed the likes of AJ Brown and Derrick Henry, but Jonnu Smith was doing a great job at the sparsest position in all of fantasy football. Now, he’s back, and he’s facing the Buffalo Bills, who are 27th against the tight end position, at a price of $4,900. I’m in. Smith is tied in fantasy points per game with Travis Kelce, second only to George Kittle, who has only played 2 games and literally scored 43 points in one of them. So, if it isn’t obvious yet, Jonnu Smith is the real deal, and should have an opportunity to prove it upon his return this week.
Good matchup, sneakily good player.
People don’t like the fact that Eric Ebron is actually pretty decent at playing football. They’re in denial. I want to deny it too, but I can’t. If George Kittle can put up 43.1 fantasy points against the awful Philadelphia Eagles defensive backfield, I think Ebron can put up a 15+ point week for the second time in a row. In Week 3, before the Steelers’ COVID-induced bye, Ebron had 7 targets which turned into 5 receptions, which is the type of volume I want on a cheap tight end. If he finds the end zone against Phill I think he will immediately pay off his $4,000 price tag, and even if he can’t get his second TD of the season, he still has a chance to put up some points and deliver at the most difficult position in fantasy to fill.
The number one fantasy defense in most drafts before the season started, the Pittsburgh Steelers, are returning back from their COVID bye, and they’ve got a date with the 1-2-1 Philadelphia Eagles. This matchup should be a match made in heaven for a team that create pressure and make plays. They will cost $3,800, which is quite expensive and I usually don’t pay up this high, but they are an incredibly reliable defense with huge upside if Carson Wentz struggles with his patchwork offensive line getting beaten constantly.
Gardner Minshew @ Houston – QB – $6,200
Kareem Hunt vs Indianapolis – RB – $6,500
Todd Gurley vs Carolina – RB – $5,700
Will Fuller vs Jacksonville – WR – $6,600
Hunter Renfrow @ Kansas City – WR – $4,900
Evan Engram @ Dallas – TE – $4,600