Tyler’s DFS Tips – NFL Week 4 by Tyler Arthur
My Tips This Week
Fitzmagic is in full effect.
Fantasy football isn’t about winning – ask Matt Ryan. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been as exciting as ever this season, and since a rocky start, he has averaged 26.26 over the last two games. This weekend he is hosting the Seattle Seahawks, who are giving up around 30 points a game despite their 3-0 record. We are yet to see a fantasy quarterback who has faced the Seahawks put up less than 28 fantasy points (the best matchup in the league so far for fantasy QB’s). Fitzmagic will only set you back $5,400 and I don’t see how this game doesn’t force him to throw the ball a hell of a lot. I hope that this success lasts as long as possible, before DK realise, he is worth so much more than he’s priced at.
Big game bounce back.
After a blistering start to the year, Cam Newton cooled a bit in Week 3, in a run-heavy affair with the Las Vegas Raiders, however I believe that he will bounce back in this matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs. The opposition couldn’t be a further opposite, meaning we will need to see the ball moving through the air, as well as Cam’s rushing floor and touchdown upside. This is the big prove-it game for Supercam. If Newton disappoints in this game, it will put a dampener on the strong start, but I want to run him out here at the somewhat discounted price of $6,400 in an ideal fantasy matchup.
I have been incredibly disappointed this year with (redraft first round pick in some leagues!) Kenyan Drake, of the Arizona Cardinals. His outlook in this improved offense was great, but he has so far only had one touchdown all season, and his involvement in the passing game has been very disappointing. There is an obvious reason for these issues – Kyler Murray steals rushing TD’s, and DeAndre Hopkins steals the receptions (especially when he runs screens and short routes). This week, however, we are ignoring everything that has preceded this game, and I am giving him another chance, because he is playing against the Carolina Panthers. I absolutely love this matchup. They have delivered exactly the amount of fantasy points I suspected to the running back position, and this week it’s Kenyan Drake’s turn. At $6,000 I’m ready to roll him out and look to beat up this terrible run defense again.
Darrell Henderson Jr.
Great price, impressive showing since he earned the role.
In Week 1, Malcolm Brown garnered the start and did a good job, but he didn’t do enough to lock up the role. Now, however, Cam Akers is banged up and the lead back role appears to be that of Darrell Henderson Jr., who has definitely earned it. Coming off the back of 12 rushing attempts for 81 yards and a touchdown as well as 40 receiving yards, Henderson took the reigns last week against the Bills and it paid off. Given 20 rushing attempts, he turned them into 114 rushing yards and another touchdown. After his back-to-back 20–point weeks, I am confident to run him out against the awful New York Giants defense. His price at $5,800 is higher than it has been over the last fortnight, but he is still very affordable and provides great value in a week where a lot of people – and rightly so, of course – will be spending up for the top RB’s.
Great player, on fire, against a bad defense.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has looked better on the back end this season than it did last year, however they haven’t improved enough that I foresee them putting out the absolute inferno that is Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. The ex-Viking has joined his new team and hit the ground running, averaging 21.3 fantasy points, including a huge 32-point explosion in week 2, but most importantly he hasn’t had a single game below 14.9 fantasy points through his first three weeks. This floor makes the upside much less risky to chase, and against the Raiders D, I think that his talent will allow him to thrive, despite a slower game pace than you’d get most weeks.
Did they not hear that he is back?
Guys, Michael Thomas should be playing this week… and I don’t think anybody told Draft Kings yet. Now, it’s not a guarantee he plays for certain, but everything is sounding very positive and I think he will be ready to go come Sunday – which means his price tag of $7,600 is an absolute smash play this week. I don’t really know what more information you need than his price, honestly. If Michael Thomas plays this week he should be in your cash game lineups. The matchup with Detroit is a bonus and we have all seen how the Saints have looked since Thomas got injured, so you can be certain that the volume we’ve come to expect for him will be there upon his return. Keep it simple, start him with this massive discount, because he will be easily $1k more in a week.
Amazing price, matchup isn’t as bad as it seems.
Yet another wideout who I think is criminally undervalued, the Carolina Panthers’ star receiver DJ Moore has managed to achieve a full-on discount of a full $1,00 after just three games (despite one of them being a good game). His season-low price of $5,600 comes in a matchup against the Cardinals, who are shown as a bad matchup for wide receivers but do not be mistaken, the Cardinals have faced the San Francisco, Washington and then then Detroit – the Niners don’t know what the hell is going on at WR, especially back in Week 1, the Football team only have one receiver who is any good at all (and McLaurin put up 28.5 points), and the Lions have been underwhelming (and Golladay put up 17.7 points by the way). I urge people to pretty much ignore the warning on Draft Kings that this defense is scary and if someone as good as DJ Moore is available this cheap, take advantage.
BONUS: Hunter Renfrow
Third and Renfrow.
An extra tip because we don’t know if Michael Thomas is going to play.
The Las Vegas Raiders have looked pretty good on offense to start this year, but they have started to see some injuries that threaten them. Last week Bryan Edwards got hurt and Henry Ruggs has been banged up since the first week of the season, and will be in and out of the lineup as he gets healthy. Also, Darren Waller being one of the best tight ends in recent history is now common knowledge, making him a primary target of defensive game planning. Why am I talking about all of these things? Because Hunter Renfrow, that’s why. Last week the second-year icon that is Hunter ‘Third And’ Renfrow put up 20.4 fantasy points, in the absence of 1. His fellow young receivers; and 2. Darren Waller doing literally anything. This week the Raiders are facing the undefeated Buffalo Bills, and I think that this is another team who will do a good job to reduce the impact of Darren Waller, and Tre’Davious White will likely make it very difficult for whoever is playing the Z role. Renfrow has an opportunity to excel from the slot again for the second week in a row, and at just $4,600 I like him as a budget receiver with a bit of a floor and touchdown upside.
Decent price, nice upside.
While this is a pretty tough slate for tight ends, and I was planning to run Jonnu Smith out again this week, but now that his game has been postponed, we’re running out the guy who should be like Jonnu Smith. Evan Engram of the New York Giants is an athletic tight end in a team that doesn’t have their best (and arguably second best) weapons on offense, in a matchup against the LA Rams. Their offense will put up points and force the Giants to pass – and their run game is awful without Saquon – so the passing weapons, despite everything that you can say about the team, will at least be involved. Engram should be able to command 5-10 targets and in PPR that’s a huge benefit. At $4,400 he is right in the middle of the TE pricing range, and I think he has more upside than most do.
Bounce back game.
Fantasy players hold grudges. DFS players actively target grudges. In Week 2, Darren Waller absolutely decimated the prime-time game and the world’s eyes were on him, expecting big things in Week 3. Obviously, this isn’t what happened. The New England Patriots did an incredible job on defense, and stopped the 2-0 Raiders, and in particular shut down Darren Waller. While everyone else is upset that the 2019 breakout tight end, I’m going to get him in my lineup and cash in on the bounce back. At a price of $5,200 he is seriously discounted this week facing the Buffalo Bills. First week out we got the type of game you’d expect most weeks, and then in week 2 he showed us the upside. I’m not falling off one of the best tight ends in the entire league after one week. Take the discount and take the points.
If any of you listened to my preseason fantasy advice, you should already know that I targeted the Indianapolis Colts defense in every single league I’m in. They have such a ridiculous schedule and I’ve been reaping the rewards, especially last week when they put up a frankly game-winning 26 points. This week they get to face the Chicago Bears, who have started undefeated – somehow – and are poised to start imploding from the inside out. Nick Foles came in last week and looked good after Mitch Trubisky got benched, but I don’t think that he is going to be able to sustain the Bears record for long. At $3,300 I’m going back to my favourite defense this year and seeing if Chicago fancy returning to our expectations.
Matt Stafford vs New Orleans – QB – $5,900
James Robinson @ Cincinnati – RB – $6,500
Antonio Gibson vs Baltimore – RB – $4,500
Will Fuller vs Minnesota – WR – $5,900
DeVante Parker vs Seattle – WR – $5,700
Logan Thomas vs Baltimore – TE – $3,500