Tyler’s DFS Tips – NFL Week 3 by Tyler Arthur
My Tips This Week
Star WR is back, decent matchup, good value.
One of last season’s hottest starters at QB before getting injured, Matthew Stafford has had a fairly unexciting opening to the year. The Lions QB has put up 17.2 fantasy points in both of his games, but that is without his star big-bodied wide receiver Kenny Golladay, who is expected to return this week. This return will boost Stafford’s weekly production and his price of $6,300 doesnt reflect his upside when he actually has his weapons. This matchup is solid, too, as the Cardinals are one of the fastest teams in football at the line of scrimmage and this means more passing for the Lions – especially if they’re chasing them and trying to keep up with their high scoring offense. I also think the stack with Golladay is viable and his price is reduced because of the injury delaying his involvement.
Rookie sensation gets the start.
It may or may not taken attempted murder to make it happen… but Justin Herbert is starting for the Los Angeles Chargers. It’s time, boys.
In his debut, the Oregon alum put up 311 passing yards and a Touchdown with one interception on 22 of 33 pass attempts. He also rushed for 18 yards and another score. This performance would have been worth a very solid 26.2. It’s no secret that I love Justin Herbert, but he’s got a decent matchup with the McCaffrey-less Carolina Panthers this week and he actually has a week to prepare properly for the game after a promising week 2. At $5,900 you can’t go wrong here, and he has proven already that he actually has legit upside.
Quality touches over quantity… Why not both?
We spoke about the Chargers having a nice matchup this week already but to say that for the running backs would be an understatement. You always need to be careful using the opponent rankings so early in the season, but when the patterns from the previous year continue you can trust them and should target them. Carolina’s run defense has been absolutely awful for a while now and this week they face one of the most talked about fantasy backfields in the league. Austin Ekeler is everybody’s fantasy darling, infamous for his receiving ability and one of those players where everyone says “what if he was a bellcow?” Then there’s Joshua Kelley… He is a rookie running back who hit the ground running and who has been immediately very involved in the offense. Through two games he has only averaged 2 less fantasy points per game than Ekeler, but he’s actually been more consistent across the two. My narrative for this pick was initially going to be that he gets more high quality touches than Ekeler due to him getting the red zone carries, but then I looked back at last week and realised he literally outcarried Ekeler, with 23 rush attempts as well as his 3 targets. Not only is Joshua Kelley currently as involved as Ekeler, he is the one who has found the end zone and will be more likely to do so again due to his usage. He costs a whopping $1,800 less than Ekeler at an incredible price of just $5,000 and I think he is an absolute lock this week against Carolina.
Phenomenal offense, a key piece for an affordable price.
Wow, the Seahawks are fun to watch this year. Russell Wilson is setting the league on fire, and it’s not going to stop this week, when the Dallas Cowboys come to visit. While their QB is taking all the headlines, Seattle’s lead running back Chris Carson has been off to a fantastic start. His involvement is not game script dependent as it has felt in the past, as was demonstrated in week 1, where he had only 6 rush attempts but still put up 24.6 fantasy points after catching the ball 6 times and scoring twice. Week 2 was a more conventional Carson line of 17 rushes for 72 yards but once again his Touchdown came through the air. His involvement is undeniable and while most people are trying to fit Wilson into their lineup, I’m taking Carson against the banged upCowboys linebackers. At $6,600 he isn’t cheap, but when you’re drafting in a week where Christian McCaffrey is injured, you should have some money to spare.
Back Healthy, good matchup, great player.
After missing week 2 because of a concussion, fantasy players who drafted Chris Godwin in their season-long leagues will be disappointed. This is DFS though, which means we can plug him in on his return and get him at a pretty unjustified discount. After his solid week 1 performance for 13.9 points, Godwin’s price has actually dropped by a few hundred dollars to $6,700, which puts him at 7th in the position based on salary, directly behind teammate Mike Evans who is $100 more. After seeing Godwin receive 7 targets in the game he started, I believe he will be the number one option in this Tampa Bay offense that has looked good, and Tom Brady will be able to find him out of the slot with efficiency and hopefully get him in the end zone this week. The matchup against Denver has been a fruitful one so far this season for receivers and I think Godwin should be reliable for a top 10 performance, with WR1 upside, at a slight discount.
The volume is there, when it clicks it’s going to be good.
Possibly the most frustrating wide receiver in all of fantasy right now is AJ Green. He received hype in the off-season because people were excited he’d be coming back and getting involved in an offense that he was great in, and now he has Joe Burrow at Quarterback. In week 1 he had a fairly standard showing worth 10 points, which isn’t anything special in full PPR, and then in week 2 he scored just 5.9 points. The volume has been there, though. As has become a bit of a joke on social media this week, AJ Green literally got 13 targets on Thursday Night Football last week – the fact that he only caught three of these passes is irrelevant to me. At a reasonable price of $6,000, Green faces the Eagles this week, and after a long rest and more time to work with his rookie QB, I think this week Green will start to click, and when he does, it’s going to be awesome for fantasy.
Cheap exposure to a potential shootout with a breakout rookie.
Why Las Vegas, why?
We already spoke about how awesome the Seahawks are and their games could turn into shootouts near enough every week, and I think that the Cowboys are going to step up and see if Dak Prescott can keeps pace. I don’t know if he can but trying to do so should result in some good fantasy value. I think you can play any of the three Dallas receivers this week, but the best value is the rookie, CeeDee Lamb. After a fairly under the radar debut, albeit with double digit fantasy points, Lamb has his breakout game in Week 2 with a line of 6 receptions on 9 targets, for 106 yards. Just a fortnight into his NFL career, I can already recognise the explosiveness that made the Oklahoma wideout so popular in the draft process, and I think that he will be an incredibly good fantasy asset if he gets even close to 9 targets each week. At just $5,400, Lanb costs marginally less than Michael Gallup, who hasn’t really got going yet and has arguably more week to week upside. If you’re worried about starting a wideout who is just one of three options, remember that in week one the Atlanta Falcons had three seperate 100-yard receivers in the same game against Seattle.
Jonnu the GOAT.
Never say I don’t warn you guys about these things. All offseason I was hyping up Jonnu Smith, and now people are surprised that he has proven himself to be the best tight end to ever walk the planet. Told you so.
Okay, maybe Jonnu isn’t the best TE of all time, but he’s the best at the position through two weeks this year, and that’s enough for me to say I told you so. After his absolutely incredible week 2 performance, worth 24.4 points, Smith’s price has hiked up, but with AJ Brown out and a trip to visit a very disappointing Minnesota team, I’m in. He costs $5,200 now which is a shame but it is probably worth it in a week where you don’t have to squeeze CMC into your lineup.
Ridiculously low price, awesome volume last week.
A hot waiver wire pickup this week, Drew Sample was one of the big surprises in week 2, posting a 7-catch game in a primetime matchup. Although that involvement only netted him 11.5 points (not bad for a TE), his team lost their first tight end and so his involvement should actually be even higher, in theory. I don’t expect more receptions, but with Uzomah out, the Touchdowns could fall Sample’s way and he is outrageously cheap at just $3,500 in this matchup against an awful Philadelphia Eagles team.
Washington Football Team
I don’t know why this keeps happening but it does. Every week I start at the very bottom of the list of defenses and I scroll up, then I choose the first team that I don’t mind starting. For the second time in three weeks I actually think the Washington Football Team has a decent fantasy outlook. At $3,000 they’re fairly cheap and the Cleveland Browns allow pressure. Admittedly Jedrick Wills looked great last week, but Baker Mayfield is prone to mistakes and I think that their pass rush is genuinely quite good.
Tom Brady @ Denver – QB – $6,100
Miles Sanders vs Cincinnati – RB – $6,400
Kenyan Drake vs Detroit – RB – $6,000
Robert Woods @ Buffalo – WR – $6,100
DJ Moore @ Los Angeles – WR – $6,100
Hayden Hurst vs Chicago – TE – $4,700