Tyler’s DFS Tips – NFL Week 15 by Tyler Arthur
My Tips This Week
Great value, upside and a decent floor.
There is a pretty big pile of high-priced QB’s on this Sunday’s slate, and that is understandable, but there is some great value nearer the bottom end, and one such value really stands out to me. That value is the Arizona Cardinals’ Kyler Murray. It is pretty clear that there is always a reason why DK changes their pricing, but I think that having Kyler at $5,600 is very interesting to me. Over the last couple of weeks, Murray has been disappointing, with 14 and 13 points – thus the price drop – but now he’s been adjusted to the price point where you can’t ignore him. Before the two down weeks, he was on a little three-game streak of good games [23, 31 and 27 points from Week 9 to 11] before the bye week. Yes, he’s struggled since that week off, but you cant ignore the fact that those three weeks were solid, and two of them were against San Francisco’s scary defense. This week he faces Cleveland so I’m not overly scared of the matchup, and his upside is worth much more than $5,600.
Fitzmagic + Playoff SZN = Start.
I have been urging people for weeks to prepare themselves for the hilarious fact that the Miami Dolphins are going to win them their fantasy leagues. It’s amazing that a team who started in such a pathetic fashion is now set to guide people through the two most important weeks of the fantasy calendar. But that is what I think is going to happen, and the reason for that, as it has been for the last few weeks too, is because of matchups. This week, Ryan Fitzpatrick (alongside DeVante Parker, the only other Dolphin I trust for fantasy) is heading to New York to take on the Giants and their porous defense. The cost of Fitzmagic is $6,200 which really isn’t too much, and the upside is as high as anyone else on the slate. Pat Mahomes and Russell Wilson don’t have the best matchup, and then the other QB’s who do have nice oppositions for fantasy are more expensive but for no better ceiling than the bearded boy in light blue.
Good matchup, Penny out, great opportunity.
The number one matchup for fantasy running backs in the league? Check. A pretty affordable price? $7,500, check. A very talented player? Check. (Here’s the big one…) The other running back who had been taking carries and receptions from him is no longer a threat? Check. Chris Carson ticks every box this week. As he faces Carolina this week, I think that the upside for him is as big as it has been all season. The Panthers defense isn’t too bad against the pass, and the Seattle Seahawks offense simply aren’t opposed to running the ball until either it stops working, or you start expecting it too much, then they hit with play action and scare you away from the run again. This week, Carson will undoubtedly be complete chalk this week, so don’t expect to surprise anybody and get a sneaky pick that your opponents missed with this one, but if you want a cash lineup, he is a brilliant play.
Great price, good form, not a bad matchup.
The LA Rams bounced back and took out the aforementioned Seahawks on the national stage, on Sunday Night Football. While I expect Seattle to bounce back, I also think the Rams can keep some of the momentum as they head to Dallas. Todd Gurley, the once truly elite fantasy star, has shown real flashes this year that he is still more than capable of great production, however the risk of putting him in your DK lineup has scared people off of those big games, and he has on a couple of occasions really burned people. This week I’m biting the bullet. The matchup with the Cowboys is neither here nor there, a middle-of-the-road opponent, but that is good enough to at least keep the Rams pushing on offense. Jared Goff isn’t as good away from home, and has been struggling in general this year, so I’m excited to see if – with the playoffs over the horizon – this team can step up and get it done when it matters. The Rams absolutely need to win this game if they want a chance at the post-season and that means I think Sean McVay will continue to give Gurley the volume we know and love. At a very affordable $6,000, I like the upside and his floor is much higher than it has earlier in the year, as he gets a featured role again.
Perfect matchup, great talent, Jones on IR.
Fair warning – this will be the most popular week for Kenny Golladay this entire season, but damn is there a good reason. Like with Chris Carson, Week 15 has just set up perfectly for his fantasy outlook. The first thing is the matchup, at home against Tampa Bay is arguably the best matchup for a wide receiver in all of fantasy football – I’d say it’s #1 for sure. The second thing, Marvin Jones has gone to IR to finish off the season, and won’t be available. And finally, he’s already proven that he is more than capable of being fantasy relevant (arguably an understatement) without good quarterback play. Oh, and he’s not even in the top-five for price at the position, at $7,200. This is a must-play, on paper, so be aware of the fact that he will be incredibly common in your opponents’ lineups, but as I said, he might be worth starting anyway, especially in cash. If you start Chris Carson and Kenny Golladay on the same team, you’re basically matching up with half of your opponents, and then you’re going to have to find some gems to put in the team with them.
The cheapest NYG WR is the one with the upside.
Picking a player from the New York Giants offense to play in your fantasy team is not an inviting prospect, I understand that, but there’s still Darius Slayton. The supposed WR3 has been a beacon of hope for the Giants and fantasy players alike. He is athletic and explosive, and he has sufficient fundamentals to capitalise on that big-play potential, which he has shown on numerous occasions this year. In Week 8 he had a two-touchdown week on just two receptions for his first of three games with a brace, including two in the last four games. Last week he exposed the Eagles for his second-best game of the season, with five receptions for 154 yards and the pair of scores, giving him 35.4 points. Now, the Giants will be hosting the Miami Dolphins defense, who won’t be much better than Philly were. At just $4,700, Slayton is a brilliant value play with huge upside. The fact that Slayton is the cheapest WR in the team but he’s got the highest fantasy points per game says it all.
Good player, good form, great matchup.
Another great option at an affordable spot on the price range, Mike Williams is a really interesting pick this week. An explosive player who plays with a QB who slings it, and who has had back to back solid weeks, available for cheap. Sign me up. The key to Williams’ scoring is his yardage, as his volume doesn’t really take advantage of the PPR scoring, and last week he only scored his first TD of the year, but he is a big play waiting to happen, and against the Minnesota Vikings, he has a good chance to benefit from a pass-heavy gameplan and put up some points, while only setting you back $4,600. Williams hasn’t had a game over 20 fantasy points yet this season, but he has the ability to do so if the volume combines with his efficiency – he’s literally averaging 21 yards per reception – and preferably a score too.
The volume is going to be ridiculous, that is all.
The Philadelphia Eagles may or may not have to enrol me to play wide receiver this Sunday. Seriously, everyone is injured in that positional group, and that means that Zach Ertz is going to get outrageous volume again – he’s had double-digit targets and 9+ receptions in four of their last five games, and in those games he’s averaging 26 fantasy points. Ertz is the third-highest priced TE but I honestly think that he is the #1 that you want to play. Not only can you actually expect 9+ catches in a PPR fantasy format, you also have a matchup against the Washington Redskins… It’s so perfect. If you have enough money to pay up to $6,000, Ertz is a fantastic play with probably the highest floor in the slate at the position and upside to match.
Sneaky play, contrarian option.
This week the tight end slate is pretty difficult, so it’s important to find a contrarian way to attack the top-end guys, and I think that Austin Hooper is a perfect way to do that. Not only is Hooper a very talented player, who was the TE1 on the season just a couple of months ago, before he got hurt, but he also doesn’t have Calvin Ridley to compete with anymore. The price isn’t too bad either, $5,000 puts him at an affordable second tier, behind the likes of Hunter Henry and Darren Waller who have been more recently successful. The matchup with San Francisco isn’t as scary as it would have been before a couple of the injuries they’ve had, and the volume and talent of Hooper gives me some faith he can perform even against a good defense.
New York Giants
Sometimes I wish that I had more money to spend on defenses – this is one of those times. The New York Giants have a fantastic matchup this week (and next week, season-long players) which gives them an opportunity to put up some points. The Dolphins will give an opportunity that they pay off their $2,700 price tag. The ceiling is decent, but the price is the main point I’m targeting here, obviously. I think Fitzpatrick will be great, but a couple of picks and a few sacks will be good for the value of this Giants D.
QB – Jimmy Garoppolo vs Atlanta – $6,100
RB – Phillip Lindsay @ Kansas City – $5,600
RB – Josh Jacobs vs Jacksonville – $7,000
WR – Jarvis Landry @ Arizona – $6,700
WR – Robert Woods @ Dallas – $6,200
TE – Tyler Higbee @ Dallas – $3,900