Tyler’s DFS Tips – NFL Week 15 by Tyler Arthur
2020 DK Tips Week 15 – Tyler’s Tips
My Tips This Week
Sneaky Price, apparently, he’s ready to go.
The New Orleans have bamboozled us all this week, and apparently their veteran QB has been planning to play all week. This wasn’t information that was available to the public, though, and so Draft Kings gave the two QB’s in New Orleans a nice price – both at $5,900. I thought this price was a bit cheap even when I thought it would be Taysom Hill who was starting, but now we’re hearing it’ll be Drew Brees. Brees is a vet with a lot of experience of winning, but at the end of the day he wants to win another Super Bowl, and so I am very confident that him getting back out there isn’t an impulsive rush to the field, I think he’s ready and if that’s the case, a shootout with Kansas City is a pretty good place to get him back. New Orleans will have to pass a lot and if that’s the case, $5,900 is too cheap for Drew Brees, it’s as simple as that. This whole offense is elevated with Brees back, and the stacks are very much in play at a discount.
After the time of writing and recording, it was confirmed that Michael Thomas would surprisingly miss the Week 15 game. This was out of the blue, and could impact Brees’ production, so keep that in mind when following Tyler’s tips this week.
The rookie likes to run, and his throwing isn’t bad either.
This slate is as lively as any, but the running back position in particular feels that little bit extra jam-packed this week, but the guys you want are going to set you back a bit, so saving some money where possible is very useful. This week I like the potential of using Jalen Hurts at QB, as he is one of the very few QB plays you can run naked (without any stack or correlation) at a good price. Hurts costs just $5,900, too, off the back of his debut win last week, where he scored 23 fantasy points. His running efforts were very exciting to see for fantasy players, with an astronomical 18 rush attempts [Kyler Murray’s season high is 14 attempts and he only got 67 yards that week] that he turned into 106 yards. Hurts only threw one TD and even lost a fumble, but still got 23 points, that shows the ceiling he has when he can find the end zone more effectively. This week he comes up against the aforementioned Kyler Murray, and his Cardinals. Arizona has a high pace of play and so that should mean more time for Philly’s O to get out there, and for Hurts to try and build on last week’s performance.
Bit of a discount, great talent in reasonable matchup.
My efforts to snipe fantasy assets off the back of disappointing performances continues this week with Jaguars running back and huge rookie surprise, James Robinson. A guy who was practically anonymous in comparison to the likes of Antonio Gibson and Jonathan Taylor, Robinson has been incredibly consistent, and has shown himself to be a legit league-winning player in season-long fantasy football formats. He’s been awesome for DFS too but his price started getting a little high. Last week, while setting his owners back $7.5k, and putting up just 12.3 points, now he is back down at a bit of a nicer $7,100 and has a date with Baltimore on the road. The Ravens defense gets a lot of respect in fantasy football, but Nick Chubb made them look silly last week, and I think James Robinson is poised for a bounce back week. Robinson isn’t as prominent in the offense when the team is behind by a lot, but the 2020 Ravens offense has been struggling enough that I think the Jags can give him the 20 touches that make him so valuable. He has one of the best floors in the league, with literally 0 games in single digit points, having played every single week, but he still has upside too.
Great volume, good player, don’t be scared of the matchup.
Another rookie running back who garnered a lot of hype in the fantasy preseason was Cam Akers of the LA Rams. Unfortunately, the Rams did what they always do [post-Gurley] which is completely confuse everyone on a week-to-week basis with their RB usage, juggle things constantly, and try to break fantasy players’ hearts. However, the past two weeks we have seen some absolutely premium volume. In the past two weeks he has had 50 rush attempts (not a typo… five-zero) as well as a sprinkling of targets. He has turned those 50 runs into 243 yards, he’s actually only scored once. The upside of Akers when he has this volume is huge. And this week he faces the Jets. Now, for the record, the Jets run D hasn’t even been that bad this year, but the Rams are predicted to win this game very handily, and this should give Akers plenty of opportunities, not to mention the dynamic, play-action heavy horizontal offense that Sean McVay runs. If Akers can get that elusive 20-touch week for the third time in a row, paying $6,600 for him will feel like a bargain.
BONUS TIP: Kenyan Drake
Big discount despite great usage.
I wanted to find a cheaper running back to go with my two others, as they’re nearer the top of the pile, and I discovered that they still haven’t adjusted Kenyan Drake’s price yet. The Cardinals running back has had a weird season this year, and a name who was going off boards in the first or at least the second round of fantasy drafts, started off well but was very inconsistent for a stretch of the season. Over the last few weeks, however, Kyler Murray has been rushing less, and as his QB has started to take a bit less of a head first approach in the offense, Drake has benefitted. The most important thing about Drake is that he is now starting to truly command the redzone work, especially when they get within the five-yard line. What was once up for grabs, and with Kyler often stealing it himself, is now very much Drake’s work, and the value of those touches is huge. He has scored five times in the last four weeks, and his consistency is obviously way better over that stretch – scoring every week, but without his DK price actually going up. This week he faces a Philadelphia run defense that people are scared to target, but I think the value of his touches makes his value as a whole too good to ignore at $5,500.
Talent and volume always there, production was an exception last week.
Last week I experienced something quite unusual. I watched a game of NFL football where I had absolutely no fantasy implications – in Primetime, too. When I was watching the game, I felt that Robert Woods was as involved as ever, but in watching it casually I didn’t realise that he basically got no production from his 8 targets. This week was an outlier, with the least targets he’s had in a month and one of just three games all year with less than 7-yards per reception, and now he’s up against the Jets, who are one of the worst pass defenses I’ve seen in the NFL (and I am a Raiders fan) at home. I think the Rams will cakewalk this game, and Bobby Woods should be able to bounce back with a nice game here. The price would probably be higher if he didn’t have a rough week in New England, so I’m willing to pay $6,800 for him this week as he hosts New York.
AiYAC is getting some serious volume, and I’m here for it.
Ladies and gentlemen, sometimes players who you want to be good for fantasy just don’t get used properly, and it sucks. It’s a sad truth of our fantasy lives. However, when the opposite is the case, and a guy who you didn’t expect starts getting great volume and a big workload, it’s a beautiful thing. The San Francisco 49ers wideout Brandon Aiyuk is an example of a very promising talent getting phenomenal usage out of absolutely nowhere. Over his past four games, he has accrued 49 targets, and hauled in 30 of them. At a very reasonable price of just $6,300 I think Aiyuk is possibly the cheapest player that you can find who has a very realistic possibility to have 10 or more catches, like he did last week. Oh, and he’s in Dallas for the weekend. I like the matchup, I like the talent, and I like the value. His hands are good, his quarterback loves him, and he is an absolute beast after the catch.
Very involved with Julio out, nice bargain.
The Atlanta Falcons have had a rough season, but their offense has generally still been very fantasy relevant even though they don’t usually win. With Julio Jones injured, though, that puts a dent in the team, Matt Ryan and arguably Calvin Ridley’s production. However, Russell Gage is a guy who we have seen have reasonably good production when number 11 isn’t on the field. Over the past two weeks he’s attracted 15 targets and has 133 receiving yards on 9 catches, as well as a TD in their loss to the Saints. At a very affordable $4,700 you are getting a guy who has put up 15.1 and 18.8 fantasy points in the last two weeks respectively, and could be in for another high target share with Julio out again as they host Tampa Bay. The Bucs defense is solid but it is at it’sstrongest up front, and I think Gage can still be relevant this week in a matchup people might want to avoid.
Ridiculous pricing for a solid option.
While most people will turn their nose up at a $3,000 tight end from the Chicago Bears, who wasn’t even the highest scoring TE on the team last week when Mitch showed up and was slinging it – I am of course referring to Cole Kmet. The rookie tight end has had 7 targets in back-to-back games now, and is becoming more and more involved, and when you’re paying that little for a guy, all you want is a bit of a floor and a bit of upside. Kmet is a good value at a position that is near impossible to predict when you pay under $5k. Jimmy Graham is a nice cheap option too but he’s a smidge more expensive and very touchdown reliant, which Kmet doesn’t have to be if he can continue to get the type of targets he’s had in December so far.
Legit big play potential and a key part of a good offense.
The Arizona Cardinals of 2019 were our favourite targets for tight ends in fantasy football – except we were playing them against their defense, not playing their own. This year, however, their young TE Dan Arnold is starting to show himself to be a very capable and deceptively athletic player, who despite being surrounded by talent has looked good. The last two weeks he has played produced particularly well, having scored three times in that span, and putting up 20.1 and 10.7 points in Week 13 and 14 respectively. He doesn’t get crazy targets but at the end of the day he is making plays and his upside is as high as you’re going to find at $3,500.
Washington Football Team
This is a bit of a funky pick I think but I like it. By far my most-tipped defense on the year, the Washington Football Team have been genuinely awesome on defense, especially for fantasy football. Their defensive line is absolutely awesome, and they make plays, simple as that. This week comes the hardest matchup I’ve picked them in, but I actually think that they have an opportunity to put up points at a very reasonable price. They’re hosting the Seattle Seahawks, which is pretty scary, but the offensive line isn’t exactly amazing, and Russell Wilson is known for taking plenty of time to throw, with his improvisation and scrambling ability, so I think that there will be opportunities for Washington to surprise some people and I’m going to put them in my lineup this week at just a $2,600 investment.
Lamar Jackson vs Jacksonville – QB – $7,500
Miles Sanders @ Arizona – RB – $6,900
Nyheim Hines vs Houston – RB – $5,400
Mike Evans @ Atlanta – WR – $6,500
Chad Hansen @ Indianapolis – WR – $4,200
Jared Cook vs Kansas City – TE – $3,400