Tyler’s DFS Tips – NFL Week 14 by Tyler Arthur
2020 DK Tips Week 14 – Tyler’s Tips
My Tips This Week
Big bounce back in a great matchup.
We look every week, who disappointed people and is poised for a big bounce back game – preferably in a very good matchup – and this week that describes Justin Herbert perfectly. Not only did he definitely hit the threshold for disappointing people, scoring just 6 fantasy points last week, his get right game just happens to be against the Atlanta Falcons defense, who are literally giving up an average of 300 passing yards a game. It’s a perfect matchup and I expect the rookie QB to step up and prove to people that it was just a down week and not him falling off. The difference between the Patriots defense and the Falcons is very notable and the Chargers have a chance at home to recover after their huge shutout loss. Herbert’s price should have changed much more due to the opposition change, but after his catastrophic week he has only gone up by $100 to $6,800.
Good game last week, good matchup this week.
After a fantasy-filled Tennessee game against Cleveland, everybody is very excited about Baker Mayfield – and rightly so, for the record – but the man trying to keep up with him did pretty damn well too. Ryan Tannehill finished with 31.6 fantasy points off the back of a 389-yard, 3 TD performance, and he did this without athletic TE Jonnu Smith, despite the fact that in the first half they had done basically nothing. This was an awesome performance, and one against a decent defense, who had Myles Garrett back and healthy. Now it’s time for 2019’s comeback player of the year to keep up the momentum and travel to Jacksonville, who have really struggled on defense all year. At a very reasonable $6,700 I think Tannehill is a great option in a week where a lot of the cheaper options are a bit risky or have question marks based on their health, situation and recent form. Tannehill also might be the most stackable QB on the whole slate with AJ Brown, Corey Davis popping off lately, and Jonnu Smith back and healthy this week.
This matchup worked out pretty well before.
One of the true fantasy football league-winners of 2019, Aaron Jones of the Green Bay Packers is an absolutely perfect fantasy asset. With his mixture of fantastic running with great receiving skills and a role in an offense that puts up more points than anyone else, those who drafted him this year have had huge success once again. His consistency this season has been something that is hard to find in the COVID and injury riddled year we are currently playing within. The Packers half back had his best game of the season in Week 2 against the Detroit Lions and now he faces them again. In the first meeting his line was a frankly ridiculous 18-168-2 with an added 4-68-1 through the air for good measure, resulting in a week winning 48.6 fantasy points. Now, with Detroit visiting Lambeau, I think it’s very difficult to look past him having another great week again, and at $7,600 he has as much upside as the $8.5k+ guys at the top of the slate.
Gibson likely to miss, McKissic should thrive.
Washington rookie sensation Antonio Gibson has absolutely set fantasy football leagues on fire this season, and with an absolutely godly performance in his Thanksgiving Day demolition of Dallas – where he scored 40 fantasy points – everybody was on the Gibby train. However, in Week 13, with an already brutal outlook anyway due to a date with Pittsburgh, Gibson got injured and left the game after just two rush attempts due to turf toe. He is considered doubtful to play on Sunday, and so I am pivoting to JD McKissic in this week’s outing in San Francisco. The Niners have a solid defensive front but McKissic’s pass catching role will be more matchup-proof (as he proved by doing really well against Pittsburgh in Gibson’s absence) and his price at just $4,900 makes him a great value play with legitimately solid ceiling despite the discount. If Gibson plays he is still an option, but off the back of his 18 point relief appearance [Peyton Barber was the recipient of more carries but he will only be relevant if he scores] I think that McKissic sees a big upgrade to both his floor and ceiling if the rookie misses this week.
BONUS TIP: Melvin Gordon III
Melvin Gordon III – Underrated due to inconsistency, great value.
A player who I have come to really appreciate over the course of this season is Melvin Gordon of the Denver Broncos. In his prime fantasy years at the Chargers he used to be a beast, but heading to Mile-High, he has been somewhat underrated, primarily due to the fact that Phillip Lindsay provides a much more explosive aesthetic when he runs the ball. However, with Gordon on one of my fantasy teams this year I have watched him more than most and I’ve been pretty impressed with his running. He has some tough games when the game script writes him out of the plan or against super tough matchups, but when he has a fair shake at some touches, he is usually really damn good. This week the Broncos are traveling to Carolina, to face a very poor run defense, and at an incredibly cheap price of just $5,200 I think that the value here should be fantastic. Gordon’s price is so low because his floor hasn’t proven to be very high when he can’t get it going, but I think this game will be closer to his ceiling, than his floor and if that’s the case he will provide a phenomenal return on investment.
Whoever is cheaper, both Vikings WR’s are incredible.
The Minnesota Vikings have two truly elite wide receivers, and all year I’ve been tipping Justin Jefferson because he’s the rookie who they can hardly believe could possibly keep producing at the level he has been, well now his price has finally usurped that of Adam Thielen, the veteran wideout who previously tore up the league alongside Stefon Diggs. Jefferson averages 18.7 fantasy points per game in the DK scoring format, and Thielen averages 19.4, and both have a very solid floor to match their high ceilings. Oh, and this week they are facing Tampa Bay, which is an awesome matchup for wide receivers, because their run defense funnels the gameplan towards more passing (not that Dalvin Cook won’t touch the ball 25 times, to be fair) and their secondary isn’t as strong. You can pick whoever you want this week, but I’m rolling out Thielen, who is priced $400 cheaper than his teammate at $7,000, and who edges out the rookie in FFPG due to his touchdown output.
Healthy, good matchup, possibly with reduced competition.
After missing practice on Wednesday because he had the pins removed from his broken finger, Chris Godwin made a full return to training on Thursday and was completely healthy, ahead of Sunday’s game hosting Minnesota. The Bucs wideout’s return to practice coincided with his teammate Mike Evans going the other way, and he didn’t participate on Thursday due to a hamstring injury. Godwin is the cheaper DK play of the two, and is also the much higher volume target. The receiving group in Tampa is crowded, and while I do think that Godwin is the one player you can trust any week that he’s healthy, having TD-machine Evans side-lined definitely wouldn’t be a bad thing. Godwin will cost you $6,300 in a good matchup against the Vikings, and I think that his combination of floor and ceiling that we love him for will be even higher now that his hand is fully recovered.
I don’t know who he is either.
Every week my co-host James gives a ‘cheap as chips’ WR pick, to help you get more value elsewhere in your lineup, looking for a receiver that will cost you next to nothing but still has some upside. Well, in Week 14 I am providing my own cheap as chips pick, in the form of Chad Hansen of the Houston Texans. I will admit, the only proof I have that Chad Hansen really exists and is actually a human being who plays in the NFL is that he has stats from last week’s game – but those stats look pretty good. Not only did Hansen actually lead the Texans in snaps with an impressive 59 snaps of the team’s 64, he was very involved, and hauled in 5 receptions on 7 targets, for 101 yards. This 18–point game was a huge effort for fantasy out of nowhere. This week they are heading to Chicago, so the matchup isn’t particularly good, but at the end of the day, this is a guy who nobody knows, but who was very involved and made plays, available extremely cheap. You just have to pay up $3,900 for a man who nobody will be excited to play, but who got 7 targets last week and made genuinely good use of them.
Consistent floor, good price.
The Tight End position as a whole is gross and every week we talk about how you really have to get lucky to actually get a big output from any TE who isn’t in the top 5, but some guys are still relatively consistent, just on a bit more of a forgiving scale. Dalton Schultz of the Cowboys has averaged 9.4 fantasy points per game on the season, but that includes a couple of one catch games and playing two or three games with serious QB doubts. On the whole he is a good value play every week, and Andy Dalton has been a perfectly serviceable quarterback for the purpose of getting the ball to our fantasy weapons. At just $3,500 you have no real risk in picking Schultz this week ahead of a game against the Bengals, who themselves are really struggling, and the upside of a touchdown is always there.
He’s back healthy, and he’s still a stud.
The Tennessee Titans offense is full of fantasy goodness and everybody knows it, with the absolutely elite in AJ Brown and Derrick Henry followed by Corey Davis, Ryan Tannehill and Jonnu Smith, they just constantly produce points. Jonnu Smith, the athletic tight end, missed last week due to a knee injury, but is back and fit, and he practiced fully this week. Smith’s natural ability and a nose for the end zone make him a great play, and when healthy, he has been awesome for fantasy. Through the first five weeks of the season, Smith was the best TE in football for points per game, and his upside is still there every game. At a very affordable $3,900 I am always looking to start Jonnu Smith when he is healthy and under-priced like he is this week. The fact that his return comes in a matchup against Jacksonville’s defense is the icing on the cake for me, too.
The New York Jets have officially made their intentions clear. This football team is striving for awful greatness, and who are the Seattle Seahawks to deny them. Reeling from a surprise defeat at the hands of their previous New York opponents, the Seahawks will surely want to bounce back strong, and at the end of the day, the defense wasn’t the problem. When they lose a game despite only giving up 17 points, that’s on the offense. I think that this should be a statement game to try and get back on track with this playoff bound team, and if their defense can beat up on Sam Darnold and apply pressure early and often, I think the price tag of $3,000 will feel like a phenomenal value. When you can get the pressure, the turnovers will come, even the Raiders discovered that much last week.
Aaron Rodgers @ Detroit – QB – $7,500
David Montgomery vs Houston – RB – $6,500
Josh Jacobs vs Indianapolis – RB – $6,300 [Check to confirm start]
AJ Brown @ Jacksonville – WR – $7,300
Mike Williams vs Atlanta – WR – $4,700
Irv Smith Jr. @ Tampa Bay – TE – $3,100