Tyler’s DFS Tips – NFL Week 13 by Tyler Arthur
My Tips This Week
This isn’t even close. My favourite pick of the week at Quarterback by far is Nick Foles, of the Jacksonville Jaguars. The pricing of $5,700 is great value, and Nick Foles is in the best matchup there is – he’s at home to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I think that Foles is a good quarterback to run out there naked, but he also has potential for a nice stack with a wide receiver or two. The Buccaneers don’t let teams run on them, but the passing game will work a treat, and Nick Foles will be slinging the ball against a bad secondary in a shootout.
Bounce back after a tough Movember.
If you want to spend a bit more, then I like the top of the second tier of pricing, in Aaron Rodgers. At $6,500 it is obviously pretty expensive, and Aaron Rodgers hasn’t done anything for the last month, averaging 11 points per game, and disappointing near enough everyone who plays him. This week, though, he is coming in against the New York Giants, who gave up a respectable fantasy performance to Mitch Trubisky last week. Obviously, Aaron Rodgers has ridiculous upside, and although he’s only been at his floor the last three games, I can’t see the Giants defense holding up against even a slightly off A-Rod.
Superstar with a good matchup, time to bounce back.
You guys will think I’m biased by now, but Josh Jacobs is just a superstar. The Oakland Raiders faltered last week and took a step backwards, falling to the New York Jets in what should have been a stepping stone to this divisional matchup in Week 13. As they travel to Arrowhead, I think that Oakland are going to bounce back – win or not – at least they are going to have a chip on their shoulder and a visor-wearing fire under them. Jacobs will have the best chance of all the Raiders to return to form, with the plus-matchup against Kansas City, who are one of the worst teams against the run – or best, if you think in terms of a fantasy opponent. Jacobs let people down with an upgraded price, so this week I’m going back to the well at a very affordable $6,900 and looking for him to make a statement against a division rival.
Nice value, good volume with upside.
The Indianapolis Colts backfield is both complicating and simple at the same time. The confusion definitely isn’t an issue of workload, that part is easy – somebody is going to be a workhorse – but the question is who will have it. Marlon Mack got hurt, and nobody knew who it would be that would step up, well we now know that it is Jonathan Williams. Since acquiring a real workload, he has now had two back-to-back 100-yard rushing games, and he scored a touchdown last week. Williams is going to be the guy until Mack returns, and this week he faces a very beatable Tennessee front-seven. At just $5,300, he is a great value pick at RB with upside and good volume.
You were warned. I’ve been telling you that Devante Parker [and Ryan Fitzpatrick] are going to win fantasy leagues this year. This is the start of the beautiful run of games that Miami have – Eagles, Jets, Giants, Bengals – and his price is still affordable. One of the surprise fantasy performers this year, Parker has been significantly more consistent than people expected, and he still has the upside that people know and love him for. This week’s matchup, hosting Philadelphia, and their funnel defense, it’s time to see that upside in action. At $5,700, Parker is an affordable floor with upside.
We’ve missed you Andy.
Andy Dalton is back. If this doesn’t excite you, you’re wrong. We love Andy Dalton in fantasy football. Now that the ginger magician that is Dalton is back under centre, I am all in on Tyler Boyd in a good matchup against the Jets. The ball will be flying about again and Boyd’s targets will be there, and hopefully better than they have been over the weeks with Ryan Finley. Boyd is priced at a very fair $5,500 and I think that he will deliver great value on that with his previous QB returning with a chip on his shoulder.
After his mysterious absence for a couple of weeks, Robert Woods is back. He returned last week and featured in their loss which was headlined by a universal outcry at Jared Goff being a bit rubbish – well this week is the get right week for Goff, and therefore we can trust Woods to step it up. The matchup against the Cardinals is as good as you can get. If the Rams can’t make it happen this week, I’m done with them, completely. I think that Woods will still be second-best to Cooper Kupp in this offense, however you can get him for $1,600 less than Kupp at a middle-of-the-pack $5,500. His volume should be there, and he gets nice volume and that comes with both upside and floor. If Goff sorts it out, this whole offense is in a great spot with the Arizona matchup.
Return of the upside?
After steadying his production from the outstanding start he had, Waller has slightly faded out of fantasy stardom, despite being a very reliable player at a very unpredictable and volatile position. Without a doubt the worst position this year, for fantasy. One thing that synced up with the reduction in Waller’s scoring has been the ascension of slot receiver Hunter Renfrow, who proved to be a great addition the draft this year. With Renfrow injured now, Waller should have a bit of extra volume, which is always nice, and this week there could be an added bonus from the matchup. The Chiefs are 26th against the position, and the game flow will probably force the Raiders to stay balanced in their game plan, which they usually do anyway. At $5,500, Waller isn’t cheap, but if you want to spend a bit without going too crazy, I like his floor and he has upside based on his raw talent in a solid offense.
Eric Ebron is hurt, T.Y Hilton isn’t playing either, and the Colts are still playing for their playoff push. Enter Jack Doyle. A player who was already involved in the offense, and capable of putting up some sort of numbers even with those other two guys active, he now becomes even more integral to the gameplan. Doyle honestly might be their best receiving option, especially in the end zone, they have in Indianapolis. At a great price of just $3,300, Doyle is a brilliant value play this week. All that it takes is two or three extra targets from those vacated from the injured players, and suddenly Doyle has more upside and floor than he’s had all season. The matchup with the Titans isn’t going to really impact things too much, for better or worse, so I’m just looking at the current situation and trying to capitalise on it while I can.
As usual I’m targeting the takeaways, give me some interceptions and a fumble, with a healthy sprinkling of sacks and I won’t care what the score is. This week I’m going with the Jacksonville Jaguars, who cost $3,300 and have the wonderful matchup with Tampa Bay – more importantly, with Jameis Winston. They have upside from their matchup, and a couple of players who are capable of making plays, which is all I’m looking for.
QB – Jared Goff @ Arizona – $6,000
RB – Benny Snell Jr. vs Cleveland – $4,700
RB – Miles Sanders @ Miami – $5,400
WR – Tyreek Hill vs Oakland – $8,900
WR – Terry McLaurin @ Carolina – $5,600
TE – Gerald Everett @ Arizona – $4,600