Tyler’s DFS Tips – NFL Week 13 by Tyler Arthur
2020 DK Tips Week 13 – Tyler’s Tips
My Tips This Week
Good form, even better matchup.
One of the least exciting fantasy plays in the league at the quarterback position, Kirk Cousins has been a genuinely solid fantasy quarterback, and he’s been heating up these past two weeks in favourable matchups with Dallas and the Panthers. This week he gets to pick up where he left off and with another great spot against Jacksonville at $6,400 I think that the Minnesota QB has an opportunity to deliver another good game. With back to back 25+ point games behind you have to see an opportunity to continue cashing in on the volume. Cousins also comes with nice stacking potential with Justin Jefferson and now that he is available, Adam Thielen too.
Great year, incredible form, better matchup than it seems.
Quite the opposite of Kirk Cousins in terms of the excitement factor, his divisional rival Aaron Rodgers has been on an absolute tear with the Packers. Averaging 25.5 fantasy points per game on the year, Rodgers has played at an elite level this year, and proved last week that when he’s on, he’s matchup proof. He is going from a tough Bears matchup to what is a sneakily good matchup with Philadelphia. The rule for a team that is struggling as much as the Eagles will often be to target them with the running game, but this D is actually not that bad against the run and they give up most of their yardage through the air with a shaky secondary – if you saw Darius Slay trying to lock down DK Metcalf you just have to feel sorry for him. ARod will cost you $6,800 but he has ridiculous upside and a very high floor too.
Covid can’t stop JT.
Last week I was super excited for Jonathan Taylor to start his great stretch down the end of the season, but I was rudely forced off of him when he popped up on the COVID reserve list. He couldn’t play last week and the Colts got murdered by Derrick Henry and co. Well, now, an even better matchup is here in the form of literally one of the two worst teams in the entire league against the run, the Houston Texans. Taylor’s Week 11 efforts will be even further from the memory of most, but I saw him looking great and featuring massively in the run game, as well as a handful of receptions, and if he can get the 26 touches of that performance against the Texans he will be in for a fantastic game, for sure. He has a low floor because the Colts can’t decide what they’re doing, but if they actually put the most talented runner out on the field, Jonathan Taylor will be a great value at $5,700.
*Conditional Pick* – If Josh Jacobs doesn’t play, smash Booker.
The Las Vegas Raiders had their annual Week 12 blunder and Josh Jacobs managed to sprain his ankle in the defeat, meaning that not only did the on-fire Raiders lose all the momentum of pushing the Chiefs to the brink, their loss to the Falcons also may have cost them their best player. Now, in Week 13 they face the New York Jets in a get right game, which they should expect to win, and as fantasy football players we can see this as an opportunity to find some value. Josh Jacobs will set you back $7,400 which is a bit risky due to him being questionable, however if he doesn’t play, I am all in on Devontae Booker. DBook has been genuinely great as a backup for Vegas and when Jacobs goes for a breather, he is always ready to get out there and take some carries. In Week 10 against his former Broncos [we love a revenge game] he put up 21.3 fantasy points on just 17 touches. If Booker gets the featured back role this week, he is guaranteed that many opportunities and more, for just $5,500 in a phenomenal matchup against the winless Jets.
BONUS PICK: David Montgomery
Super impressive last week, now another great matchup.
Possibly the most pleasantly surprising performance of Sunday was by David Montgomery of the Chicago Bears, the running back had some high fantasy stock placed in him over the last two years, but ultimately 2020 has been difficult for him. It feels like every single week Montgomery gets between 5 and 15 points, but he has flashed a few times, and none more than last week against Green Bay. The Packers run D has been a good target for fantasy RB’s this year, and Montgomery continued that trend, hauling in 5 catches as well as breaking off a very uncharacteristic 57-yard rush attempt. His 28.3 fantasy points in DK have earned him just a $200 price boost going into another great matchup, now with a home game against the awful Lions defense, at $5,500. Also the Bears are Detroit’s absolute bogey team, as we shall remind ourselves momentarily.
Stud with bad QB play, in the matchup where his QB actually shows up.
I shared with you all earlier in the season the stats that confirm Mitch Trubisky elite Lion-slaying tendencies, so I won’t fully recap them again, but long story short Mitch absolutely destroys Detroit, and his averages are a genuinely good statline. This year was no different, and in Week 1, Trubisky slumped the Lions for a line of 20-242-3-0 and even rushed for a sneaky 26 yards, producing a 24.3 fantasy point game, that still remains to be his season high. He then proceeded to get benched shortly after [primarily because he doesn’t play Detroit every week]. However, he came back in Week 12 and actually put up some production in a loss to Green Bay, where he helped his star wideout Allen Robinson to an absolutely awesome game. This week, I get to buy into Allen Robinson without the caveat that I expect his QB to suck. Robinson is an affordable $6,700 in this great matchup with Mitch against the one team he actually performs against. ARob has great volume and is the centrepiece of the offense, and if he can get that 10 targets we always hope he will, this matchup gives him an opportunity to have another really good game.
Volume is king.
The LA Rams is a fascinating team this year, with their defense looking as terrifying at times as any in the league, and their offense being called by one of the best minds in football and featuring two of the best receivers. Despite the fact that the team is 7-4 and has come out on top in some key matchups, Draft Kings continues to undervalue their pass catchers. Jared Goff is not the best, and I am becoming increasingly anti-Goff in fantasy, but Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are both great. They aren’t priced far apart, but on recent form, I am choosing to start Robert Woods this week. He has had two huge games in the last four, and his volume is just as insane as Kupp’s, for a little bit cheaper, at a price of $5,900. This week they face the Arizona Cardinals, who don’t have an amazing defense, but also who play at a very high pace themselves, allowing for the opposing offense to increase their snap count, and ultimately volume. Woods has very high target numbers, and over the past two weeks he has averaged 9.5 receptions for 105 yards, and he has touchdown upside each and every week.
Cheap but genuine upside in a good matchup.
The New York Jets are absolutely awful, but last week the Las Vegas Raiders were too, and for the entire season their defense has been struggling to keep up with their offense, so off the back of their defeat to the Falcons, the Raiders are pretty vulnerable. Denzel Mims, the rookie wideout who has still yet to score a TD since his addition to the roster in Week 7, has been actually somewhat consistent in his fantasy production and could excel against this defense. Mims is a big play threat, with a high aDOT and is averaging 16.7 yards per reception on the year, which is a great archetype to go after this Raiders secondary. With Sam Darnold back, the offense isn’t actually good, but the ball is getting thrown and I think Denzel Mims is a very sneaky start at just $4,100 this week against a Raiders team who risks having their season destroyed by the Jets two years in a row.
Who knows at this point.
We talk every week about the absolute shambles that is the TE position in fantasy football, but at least there are guys out there like Robert Tonyan. A man whose name not only did people not know, but they didn’t even know how to pronounce, has now become genuinely fantasy relevant, and despite quieting down for a while, he’s found himself part of the gameplan again. The matchup we discussed with Rodgers is great for fantasy, and while Davante Adams will set you back close enough to 20% of your budget, you can take a shot at Tonyan having another great week for his third in a row, against Philly, for just $3,700. Tonyan has 7 touchdowns on the year and if he gets another one this week, he’s practically an automatic top-5 TE.
Not a ‘good’ matchup, but still a good situation.
Lots of people who play on Draft Kings will pick players almost exclusively who have the alluring green-coloured number in the opponent ranking column, and it’s understandable, but sometimes a situation or a player and their assigned value makes it worth ignoring. The Packers aren’t considered a good team to pass against, and they’ve done well against fantasy tight ends, but Dallas Goedert of the Eagles is currently near enough the only guy in the entire offense worth considering for fantasy. In Zach Ertz’s absence, his volume has been very solid, and at just $4,300 you’re adding someone who can get double digit targets at the TE position, something he did last week against the Seattle Seahawks on MNF. I don’t expect the Eagles to be very competitive in this game, but if the Packers are out in front and passing a lot, that facilitates forcing Philadelphia to do the same.
This week for my defensive pick I’m going for the Chicago Bears for two reasons. Firstly because their game last week has obviously put people off and held their price in check, and secondly because this matchup against Detroit could bring serious upside. I’ve already made it clear that I believe in the magic that is Mitch Trubisky vs the Lions, and I think that in a game where Matthew Stafford has to drop back repeatedly and make throws, this defense is going to create some pressure and make something happen to either force turnovers or repeatedly get into the backfield for sacks and big hits. At $3,100 I think that you have just enough of a discount because of their previous performance to pull the trigger in this rare week where I actually like a couple of Bears for fantasy.
Mitch Trubisky vs Detroit – QB – $5,400
Latavius Murray @ Atlanta – RB – $5,900
Frank Gore vs Las Vegas – RB – $4,400
Allen Lazard vs Philadelphia – WR – $5,000
Michael Thomas @ Atlanta – WR – $7,000
Evan Engram @ Seattle – TE – $4,900