Tyler’s DFS Tips – NFL Week 12 by Tyler Arthur
My Tips This Week
Over the last week everyone has decided that Lamar Jackson is going to be the MVP, but I think that has something to do with the fact that the Seattle Seahawks were on a bye week. This week, Russell Wilson returns, and I think he’s going to pick up where he left off, and continue his campaign for the Most Valuable Player. The Week 12 matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles is a very strong one for the Seattle passing game, due to their funnel defense, which should force Wilson to throw it more than he usually does. Tyler Lockett should be back, and the passing game should be firing on all cylinders. Wilson is the highest priced QB on the slate at $6,800 but I’m going to him for a simple reason – the other guys who are great just aren’t cheap enough to not choose Wilson. Matt Ryan (who I do like this week, in fairness), only $100 less. Drew Brees, only $200.
Is Baker SZN back?
After a truly wild start to the year, where the Browns completely disappointed everybody, they are trying to claw some positivity together. Now that the Browns are starting to actually string a couple of wins together, you can begin to trust some of the fantasy pieces more – and this is the best week to do just that. The reason for that is their opposition, the Miami Dolphins. After a grossly unforgiving start to the season, Baker Mayfield is back and ready to try and repay the faith of those who believed in him. Last week, Mayfield put up just his second 20+ fantasy point game, and now it’s time to see if you can catch him with his third. At $5,900 he is cheap enough to be worthy of the downgrade from the top end QB’s, but he has enough upside to be exciting in this plus matchup.
The one Brown you can rely on.
Someone for which Cleveland’s shortcomings didn’t stop his fantasy production, Nick Chubb is once again an incredible play this week. Floor, ceiling, touchdown upside – it’s all there. Trust me when I say that Nick Chubb was the odd one out all season, averaging just shy of 20 points in the full PPR format of Draft Kings, but that doesn’t mean that he’s going to do bad when the Browns actually do good – he’ll be solid no matter what. Last week, Chubb had his first week of the entire year that didn’t generate double digit points, so hopefully some people will be frustrated and worried, but I trust him to bounce straight back and have a big week. His efficiency and touchdown upside will be as good as ever, and the price of $8,100 seems pretty damn affordable when you compare it to Christian McCaffrey’s – who has a gross matchup.
Just let it happen.
I don’t know why, but I’ve never been a fan of Derrick Henry. I think that his one-dimensional nature might be part of it, but it’s effective. Last week I thought that the
matchup with Kansas City would phase out Henry’s ability to get the necessary volume to put up points. What really happened was nobody’s prediction. He rushed 23 times for an absolutely astronomical 188 rushing yards and a pair of TD’s. At a cost of $6,900, he is an investment that I usually don’t make, but this week he is going up against Jacksonville, who are susceptible to the running back position, and if Henry can get rolling, he’s proven time and time again that he has as much upside as literally anyone.
Back to back.
After a huge performance last week, Calvin Ridley has proven to anyone who doubted it, that he has legit upside. That upside amounted to a 31.3 fantasy point explosion in Carolina. The obvious fear of chasing points always applies, and you don’t ever just want to assume that the next week will follow, but the matchup this week is even better than last week. Let me rephrase that – this matchup is the best matchup. With Tampa Bay coming to town, you can’t find a better matchup, and with Julio Jones all the way up at $8,000, Ridley allows for a much more affordable exposure to the matchup, especially if Austin Hooper misses. Ridley is only $6,500 and has as much upside as any receiver on the week.
Great value, reliable involvement.
The Oakland Raiders are still going, guys. They’re 6-4 and the surprise is wearing off – it’s time to ride them for fantasy, if you haven’t already. This week is another favourable fantasy week, and I’m going to Hunter Renfrow, in this matchup. At just $4,500, he is a cheaper option than his teammates Tyrell Williams and Darren Waller, he is also less popular than the others, but has upside too. He didn’t have a floor toward the start of the season, but having fully established himself into this offense, he has now spent the last five weeks averaging 11.2 fantasy points (but getting a nice 6-point injection by scoring in Weeks 8 and 9) proving his floor. This week, heading to the New York Jets, Renfrow has an opportunity to get back up to his ceiling. I think Waller is going to get a big dose of Jamal Adams and that isn’t ideal, so Renfrow is a great value option to capitalise.
We love a narrative pick. While an awful lot of people have been getting very excited about OBJ this week (which I completely understand), I’m loving his teammate, Jarvis Landry. Juice has actually been the better Browns receiver over the last month, with three consecutive touchdown games, of which he has put up 14+ fantasy points in each. Now it’s time for his revenge game, which also just happens to be a fantastic fantasy matchup, as he faces the Dolphins. At $6,300, he is $700 less than his best friend, and I think he’s a safer pick, without losing out on the upside. Obviously, if you’re trying to get a huge game for a tournament play then Beckham is exciting, but in cash games, I think that Landry is a much safer pick.
The Pittsburgh Steelers aren’t the most exciting fantasy prospect, by any means, and the passing game is dying before our eyes, but that’s kind of a good thing for us. Vance McDonald is the last one standing in that passing game. Having received 7 targets in three consecutive weeks, McDonald is due for that reliable volume to manifest itself into some yardage, and hopefully a solid fantasy day. His opponent, the Bengals, can be scored on, and his price is an incredible $3,500, which gives you more wiggle room on a really tough slate, and he still has upside.
Good matchup, surprisingly great player.
Someone I didn’t expect to be giving as a tip this year, Ryan Griffin is actually a great play this week. He costs $4,200 and he’s actually been pretty great for the most part, in his impromptu Chris Herndon replacement service, including two separate 25-point fantasy weeks, one of which was last week. His price is up higher than you’d hope, but that is because he’s playing against the bend-but-don’t-break Oakland Raiders, whose defense is allowing fantasy points, even though the team is winning. I think Griffin has more upside than many of the much cheaper guys who you go to on a week like this, and his ability to find the end zone means that a floor game can become a ceiling game very quickly.
I don’t spend up on defenses, ever, but this week I’ve got a tip for where I’d go if I was planning on putting a bit more investment that way. I love the Atlanta Falcons defense this week. Not only have Atlanta undergone a complete resurgence on defense, and in general, since their bye week, they also have an incredible matchup against Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay will take sacks, and they’ll throw picks, and the Falcons will once again make us wonder ‘what if’ Dan Quinn didn’t call the defensive plays this season at all. I think Atlanta will win this game, and their defense will be a big part of that. They cost $3,500, which is probably too much for me, personally, but I think they’re my favourite play this week, and they are right up there as one of the favourites to be the highest scoring D on the week.
QB – Sam Darnold vs Oakland – $5,800
RB – Phillip Lindsay @ Buffalo – $5,200
RB – James White vs Dallas – $5,300
WR – Josh Gordon @ Philadelphia – $4,200 [If Tyler Lockett doesn’t play]
WR – Marvin Jones Jr. @ Washington – $6,100
TE – Greg Olsen @ New Orleans – $4,100