Tyler’s DFS Tips – NFL Week 12 by Tyler Arthur
2020 DK Tips Week 12 – Tyler’s Tips
My Tips This Week
Having a great year, now he has a great matchup.
One of the most admirable performers in the league this year, Derek Carr has been absolutely phenomenal at the helm of the Las Vegas Raiders. Playing well as an NFL quarterback doesn’t always directly translate to an equal level of fantasy production, but the newly-relocated QB has been able to have some strong performances, including five 20+ point performances in his 10 games. His uptick in production hasn’t put his price up high, though, despite a phenomenal matchup. At $5,700 you can roll out DC4 on a trip to Atlanta, facing the 29th ranked defense in fantasy against quarterbacks. Josh Jacobs should be able to prosper against the Falcons, but the passing game has been genuinely strong this year, and I think Carr has an opportunity to put up another strong week for a very affordable price. The Raiders are here to play this season, and they have to keep their momentum up and bounce back from an incredibly close fought loss to the Super Bowl champs and win this week.
A good offense and a bad defense, sound familiar?
The reason that the Atlanta Falcons are a great defense to target for fantasy is that their offense is really good but their defense is bad. Well that also very accurately describes the Las Vegas side they’ll be hosting this week. Matt Ryan therefore has a great matchup too. With a marginally higher price, the Falcons QB will set you back a very affordable $5,900 in this home matchup, and despite the fact that the Raiders are favourites, I think that the Falcons offense should be in for a good game. After Ryan’s down week against the Saints his price has dropped and fantasy fans may shy away, but I’m expecting a bounce back – especially if Julio Jones is healthy, and I think Ryan should be safe for 15+ points with a legit 25+ point ceiling.
Unjustified price change.
The Cleveland Browns backfield is the most dynamic one-two punch in the NFL, and the production from the two star running backs has been fantastic even when they are both vying for touches. Nick Chubb is an absolute big play machine, who seems impossible to stop, and then Kareem Hunt is a receiving back who is very versatile, and does work in both the running and passing game. Since Nick Chubb has returned, Hunt’s price has made him pretty unusable for cash lineups, but now they have hit him with a huge price decrease, and I think this opportunity is phenomenal. After a $6.7k price tag a week ago against Philadelphia, Hunt’s price has dropped all the way down to $5,600 against the Jaguars defense. I think this is a better matchup for Hunt and he’s now seriously affordable. Even better, because Hunt had a mediocre week last time out despite a touchdown, and people may be lower on him – which just means we get better value at a reasonable ownership.
BONUS PICK: Wayne Gallman Jr.
Consistency at a very low price.
Sometimes it isn’t the flashy play that’s the best. Honestly, sometimes you’re actually better off going with a play that people will be reluctant towards. That is how people feel about starting players from the New York Giants in fantasy football – and for the record, I don’t blame them. But you have to be true to the numbers. Wayne Gallman has been genuinely good for fantasy football (preferable if you have some form of PPR), averaging a very respectable 15.8 fantasy points in DK’s scoring system since he took over the lead role. All while costing absolutely nothing, by the way. This week they’ve bumped him up to $5,000 but with last week’s shift in RB prices, this is nothing. The value is phenomenal here and Gallman should be able to put up some points against a suddenly very defeated feeling Cincinnati team.
He’s back but his price isn’t.
Just like with Julio, I am always looking to see elite players at affordable prices, and for the second time in a row we can target Michael Thomas with such a value. The price is still at a very reachable $7,400 even though he had a great week against Atlanta last week [despite having Taysom Hill at QB], and I am excited to see if this Drew Brees-less offense continues to try and work with its weapons through a key period of the season. Thomas had 12 targets in that game, which he converted into 9 receptions – should have been 10 if not for a very uncharacteristic drop – for 104 yards. If you can buy 12 targets for $7,400, I am very interested. Also, let’s not ignore the matchup, the Denver defense is very good against the run, and so should funnel the ball through the air, which can only be good for Michael Thomas.
Gadget reputation but with legit volume.
One of the more interesting teams in fantasy football this year has been the Carolina Panthers, with the emergence of Mike Davis in Christian McCaffrey’s absence, as well as the dynamic duo of Robby Anderson and DJ Moore straining on opposing defenses every week, with each of them having great games. But amongst these two positions, Curtis Samuel has been the most versatile and pleasantly surprising. Playing wide receiver – at least for our fantasy purposes – Samuel has been involved both in the passing game and on the ground, where he has actually been able to snag a couple of touchdowns, as well as the boost to yardage. In two of the past three weeks, the more gadgety receiver has actually had 9 or more targets, which is great volume, especially for a player with so much YAC ability. At just $5,100 you can add the cheapest player in the offense who have a matchup with a disappointing Vikings secondary, and without sacrificing the upside (he has had four separate games of 17+ fantasy points).
Despite injuries, good season.
We talk about it every week, the absolutely grim tight end position, which seems to let people down every single week, but you have to make the decision each time and the key is just to make sure you try and see if you can find some balance on the price being low, but the potential for points being high. Noah Fant is an athletic tight end with a bit of offense around him, and who is one of the bigger target recipients on the team, but due to injuries he hasn’t been able to maintain the consistency that is so appreciated at such a sparse position. In a matchup against the Saints, Denver will have to pass the ball, and if Fant can stay healthy, he is going to have some targets. At $4,200 it is an affordable price for a TE with some upside.
Might as well keep going back to the well.
Last week I spoke about how consistent Hunter Henry is, and then he had a 14.8 fantasy point game. His price has hardly moved, and at $4,800 he is still a great value play at a tough position. The matchup with the Bills is solid, and the Chargers have been very successful in the hands of rookie QB Justin Herbert, who is clearly a big fan of his tight end. The Chargers O should be able to make some plays against the Bills, but the Buffalo offense will also push Los Angeles to keep that ball moving through the air. Also, one last thing, it is looking like this may be the last week without Austin Ekeler, (technically he even might start this week) and of course when he returns, there is a high likelihood that he will start to command a notable target share, and will chip away at those numbers for everybody else. Get in one last week of Hunter Henry before their stud running back rocks up.
Despite a lack of their star edge rusher Myles Garrett, who missed last week’s game, the Cleveland Browns defense [whose schedule you guys should be very aware of if you’re in a playoff push in your redraft league] still showed up in a big way. They scored a safety, logged a very impressive 5 sacks and totalled 20 fantasy points. This was a fantastic effort against a seriously struggling Philadelphia offense, with a shaky Carson Wentz at the helm, and now they get to face the Jaguars, who have their own turbulence at QB too. Gardner Minshew is on his way back but we don’t know what to expect and that is a good sign for Cleveland.
Cam Newton vs Arizona – QB – $6,400
Kalen Ballage @ Buffalo – RB – $5,800
Todd Gurley vs Las Vegas – RB – $5,500
Nelson Agholor @ Atlanta – WR – $4,900
Jarvis Landry @ Jacksonville – WR – $5,200
Jared Cook @ Denver – TE – $3,500