Tyler’s DFS Tips – NFL Week 11 by Tyler Arthur
My Tips This Week
Great matchup, reliable option.
Even though he lost, Dak Prescott had a great game on Sunday Night Football, against a solid Minnesota defense, putting up 29.9 fantasy points in the close-fought game. This was the third consecutive 20+ fantasy point showing, and he has only had two games (out of 9) without20 or more. This week he has a great matchup against the Detroit Lions, who are just about the most ideal opponent, with a good offense but a bad defense, particularly against the pass. The $6,700 price tag is nearer the top of the list, but Dak has a fantastic floor and a very high ceiling too. I like Prescott and I think that Ezekiel Elliott will be incredibly popular this week too.
Forcing the Pats to pass? Yes please.
We speak every week about how the Philadelphia defense is a funnel defense, meaning that they force you to pass the ball to beat them. This makes them a very good target for a receiver or quarterback pick, and this week they’re hosting the Super Bowl champions. Yes please. Tom Brady against a defense that is susceptible to the pass sounds good to me. The GOAT will set you back $6,400 which is pretty much down the middle of the road, but the floor is great and his upside is naturally high from the Eagles matchup.
Great matchup, affordable price.
We’re back, as always, to my weekly Raiders pick, and Josh Jacobs is making a return. The favourite for the Offensive Rookie of the Year has been instrumental in the great Oakland season so far, and this week is his best matchup of the season so far – reminder that he’s averaging 17.7 points per game on DK – and costs a very reasonable $6,900. Jacobs’ floor is going to be really strong against the Cincinnati Bengals, and the upside is huge, as they will run the ball as much as they can to try and keep the stress off of the banged up defense, and he could find the end zone multiple times.
Budget beast, great value pick.
Every other week there is one of those plays who pop up with an incredibly low price but a much better situation than they usually would be, due to injury, particularly at the running back position. This week that player is Brian Hill. With both Ito Smith and Devonta Freeman absent, he is now stepping up as the lead RB and his price does not reflect that. For just $4,800 you can easily slot him into your lineup, and he should easily deliver on his value. A fantastic matchup against Carolina and the discounted price makes him a very chalk play, but that’s because he is a fantastic play.
Good player, equally good matchup.
Another player who had a good performance on SNF was Michael Gallup, who scored 17.6 points in the matchup against the Vikings, he now gets the same benefit as Dak from going to Detroit, where the Cowboys passing game should thrive. Even though Gallup is the WR2 on the team, he is still pretty expensive at $6,500, but that is because he is an option with both floor and ceiling. I actually think that the Cowboys are a team you could stack if you want to get Dak at QB, and if I was to do so I’d lean towards Gallup to save some money instead of trying to get all the way up to Cooper.
Reliable option with fantastic matchup.
One of my favourite players this week, D.J Moore is one of the most consistent wide receivers in the league and with a brilliant matchup at home to Atlanta. With 8+ targets in all-but two of the games this season, Moore is a very involved and reliable receiving option, but who has big-play potential too. This volume makes the floor so high – due to the PPR format – that his ceiling is naturally even higher than that, with two consecutive 20+ fantasy point weeks coming into this game against one of the worst pass-defending teams. At $5,900 I absolutely love this spot for Moore, and you can even stack him with Kyle Allen who is very cheap, and of course Christian McCaffrey who isn’t even close to cheap. I actually really like Curtis Samuel too, he’s cheaper and has upside, but less of a floor than Moore.
Gone under the radar, great matchup.
WARNING – Do not play Tyler Boyd if AJ Green comes back. On the condition that he is still the WR1, which I expect, I love Boyd’s matchup in Oakland this week. While he has a new quarterback, I’m not going to see it as a huge downgrade, and the matchup is more important than how good this Bengals team is – or isn’t. Boyd has been getting so much work that you can’t ignore it, with an absolute minimum of 6 targets a game, he’s actually averaging 10.1 targets. This is a fantastic amount of volume, and if he got that many against the Raiders defense, you’ll want him in your team, especially at just $5,200. If AJ Green is back, I’d rather go without any Bengals, but if Green misses out, I’m happy to go with either Boyd or Auden Tate as a high upside budget play.
Greg Olsen – Great value, great matchup.
By far the easiest pick of this week, Greg Olsen is the best value at the tight end position and it isn’t close. He might not be the best TE on the week, he might not have the most upside of everyone, but at $3,900 he is a really safe play with a way more affordable price than you’d expect. His matchup against Atlanta is great, and he is one of the most reliable players at the least reliable position in fantasy this year. I’d like him this week even if he was a bit more expensive, but the discount makes him an absolute lock for anybody who doesn’t want to spend up.
Kittle out, best matchup on a budget.
This week is the worst week physically possible for George Kittle to be missing out, as the San Francisco matchup this week is the worst team in the NFL at defending the tight end. A couple of weeks ago, Kittle had 19.9 points in the same matchup, but this Sunday he’ll be watching on from the sideline, giving us our second consecutive week of Ross Dwelley. In Kittle’s absence he received 7 targets, and while Jimmy G was pretty awful in that game, meaning that they weren’t as productive as you’d hope, there is upside in this matchup, at a price of just $3,400. In order to get enough money to play the likes of Christian McCaffrey, Lamar Jackson or Michael Thomas, you need to have cheaper guys, and Dwelley has some upside to return on the cheap price. Obviously, make sure Kittle isn’t playing before locking this one in.
New Orleans Saints
A defense who has some great players on it, but isn’t priced that way, the New Orleans Saints will set you back just $2,900, and their matchup against the Buccaneers gives them a pretty high likelihood of sacks and turnovers, which is what you want. People assume that a fantasy defense have to be a team who won’t concede points, but it’s more about making plays and forcing turnovers, which is something the Saints D is in a great position to do this weekend.
QB – Derek Carr vs Cincinnati – $6,100
RB – Devin Singletary @ Miami – $6,000
RB – Ronald Jones vs New Orleans – $5,200
WR – Courtland Sutton @ Minnesota – $6,000
WR – Mohamed Sanu @ Philadelphia – $5,100
TE – Darren Waller vs Cincinnati – $5,500