Tyler’s DFS Tips – NFL Week 11 by Tyler Arthur
2020 DK Tips Week 11 – Tyler’s Tips
My Tips This Week
No practise, no problem.
Last week a couple of Pittsburgh Steelers players tested positive for COVID-19 and it forced their veteran quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to sit out for the week, as a close contact to one of them. However, after missing practise all week, Big Ben rolled up on Sunday and had his best game of the entire season, against the Bengals. After back to back big weeks, averaging 30 points per game, he has another great matchup in Week 11, as the Steelers travel to Jacksonville. This QB slate is weird and many of the usual suspects are either not on the slate, injured or their price or matchup makes them less exciting this week than most – in weeks like that it can be good to pivot to someone who is in form and Ben’s matchup this week justifies his price tag of $6,700, and his mixture of floor and upside is always appreciated.
Down week, back the bounce back.
After a tough week last week, people will very likely be scared off of Texans superstar QB Deshaun Watson, who had his worst game of the whole season in Week 10 in Cleveland. The thing that people might ignore though is that the weather was absolutely awful and delayed the game. Plus, he had multiple opportunities to improve his week, including a fourth down QB draw near the goal line that didn’t pan out. I am now looking at a matchup with the Patriots that people will be worried about, but they are actually middle of the pack as a matchup for fantasy QB’s. Watson costs $6,500 and I think if we can get the player we’ve come to expect, and the player who we saw every single week from 4 through 9. The floor is usually there, and the ceiling has been evident all year.
He’s back, and he’s involved.
This is a tough week. Draft Kings realised all of a sudden that they have been under-pricing their running backs for the first ten weeks of the year, and now everybody is more expensive. That means that the best RB’s are priced up, and many of the players we usually target have either a difficult matchup or are banged up. So, I am choosing talent this week over seeking a great matchup or a huge discount. I think Miles Sanders of the Philadelphia Eagles is priced just right, but amongst the rest of the chaos of the slate, I like it. At a price of $6,900 the rookie is set at a very reasonable spot amongst the inflated top end pricing, and a matchup against Cleveland (which is usually pretty middle of the road anyway) is actually a bit better this week in the absence of star DE Myles Garrett. Sanders is a versatile back who should get involved both on the ground and through the air, which is always helpful in PPR.
I’m scared, but I like it.
I never use running backs from New England – pretty much in any context – who are not named James White. I have said on multiple occasions I never have any faith in the volume, or the involvement. Well, this week (in a pretty weird slate, with the pricing shift of top RB’s), I am going to give it a go. Damien Harris has shown himself to be worthy of some serious volume, and he’s been getting just that. Through the last three weeks he is averaging 17.3 carries, and he honestly hasn’t reached his ceiling. He’s had a couple of solid games, but he hasn’t done enough to truly catch everybody’s attention, and now I think his big game is coming. After his third 100+ yard game of the year, I am starting to see that there is a real chance that Harris can earn a legit lead-back role. If we can see him getting the amount of carries he has been recently, ina matchup against the Houston defense, I think he could finally break 20 fantasy points for the first time. At just $5,700 on an expensive slate, I love the value, and his increased workload provides both ceiling and floor.
BONUS PICK: D’Andre Swift
Everybody loves Mike, we love D’Andre instead.*
This week Christian McCaffrey is out again, and in the most unfortunate of weeks, as the Panthers are facing the Detroit Lions – the worst defense against fantasy running backs – however, instead of using Mike Davis in this matchup, I actually prefer his counterpart. While the Lions are the worst, the Carolina defense is almost as bad, and D’Andre Swift is a genuinely really great option. He has been starting to get the type of volume you’d expect for him over the last couple of weeks, with two of his three double-digit rush attempt games coming in the last fortnight. Volume for Swift, who is a talented young player, will lead to production, and especially against the Panthers defense. At $6,400, Swift is a great option in a week where Draft Kings have severely upped the prices of their top RB’s.
*During my writing of this article there was some mention of D’Andre Swift possibly missing the game. Be aware of this and check his availability. If he doesn’t play, I would avoid the backfield.
High Volume, Low Price.
As you may have noticed earlier, I am a big fan of facing the Houston Texans with my fantasy players, and that applies to the wide receiver position too. A pleasant surprise toward the midway point of this season has been how involved and genuinely awesome Patriots wide receiver Jakobi Meyers has been. The New England sophomore has really stepped up, and has commanded over 12 targets per game on average through his last four, and 17.9 fantasy points per game, which is phenomenal, especially in what we recognise as a downgraded passing game with Cam Newton at the helm. This impressive season puts Meyers in the forefront of fantasy players’ minds for redraft and dynasty fantasy leagues, but this week in particular I am very excited for him in DFS. The Houston matchup this week is phenomenal and I think that he has a great opportunity to provide huge value on his $4,900 price. There is absolutely no justification to how cheap he is.
Pick your poison, all three are great.
As you can probably tell from my tip of Ben Roethlisberger, I really like the Pittsburgh passing game this week, but the funny thing is that it isn’t as broad as that, I also like every single wide receiver on the team. JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6.4k) and Chase Claypool ($6.1k) are both great options, but I’m choosing the cheapest of the three Steelers wideouts, with Diontae Johnson setting you back just $5,900. Johnson has commanded large target volume throughout the season, and while he has been hurt a couple of times, you can’t ignore the numbers. If Diontae Johnson is healthy for a whole game, he gets 10 targets, it’s that simple. Double-digit targets against the Jacksonville defense is just automatic fantasy production. Whoever gets into the endzone for Pittsburgh will be great for fantasy, but with his volume, I am confident that Johnson can be good even without scoring, and he’s also the cheapest of three good options.
Cheaper than teammate and higher upside?
Kirk Cousins won a primetime game. Yes, it was against the Bears, but hey, baby steps. Seriously though, in a tough matchup, the Vikings passing game thrived, and both Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson had great games. Similarly to with the Steelers receivers, you have to compare the prices of the options, but I actually (for DFS, specifically) prefer the cheaper of the two receivers. The rookie, Jefferson has been having a great year, and has huge upside on any given play, but he also has better volume than you’d expect. He costs a few hundred less than his veteran teammate, at $6,000, and the matchup against the Dallas at home is literally the opposite of their game at Soldier Field last week. Jefferson had 10 receptions last week, and that type of volume in a matchup with the Cowboys would have an insane ceiling.
“Consistency” at the most awkward position.
The tight end position is tough, man. It is really really difficult to find any sort of reliable production, and I think that it can be difficult to recognise what production looks like, when a top 5 TE on a week often doesn’t even have double digit points. Hunter Henry has been one of the better producing tight ends, despite only averaging 9.7 fantasy points per game, and last week he scored a touchdown which is always a huge factor at the position. This week he is facing the New York Jets so I like him, and he is just $4,600 [this slate doesn’t have a single TE above 5k]. I think the matchup is solid and this position is incredibly hard to predict, so I’m running Henry out and hoping he delivers like he did last week in Miami.
Another ‘consistent’ performer.
Another player who has been pretty reliable throughout the season, Eric Ebron of the Pittsburgh Steelers is often very affordable for DFS, despite having lots of double-digit weeks at a position where that is rare. Ebron has scored three times, but has been a very usable fantasy asset in more weeks than that, with solid volume in a powerful offense. The Steelers matchup with Jacksonville has already been mentioned twice now, but Ebron is as much a benefactor as Big Ben and the wideouts, so I like him this week at $4,000.
Washington Football Team
An exciting development this season has been the genuine success of the Washington defense for fantasy football. They create legit pressure and have been able to have some success at a very affordable price. They get sacks, they have had turnovers, and they’re up against a Bengals offensive line that has been banged up all season and is susceptible to pressure itself. The cost for the Football Team’s D is just $2,900 which makes them a bargain that actually has a bit of upside.
Cam Newton @ Houston – QB – $6,200
Kaylen Ballage vs New York Jets – RB – $5,600
Giovani Bernard @ Washington – RB – $5,500
Terry McLaurin vs Cincinnati – WR – $6,900
Marvin Jones @ Carolina – WR – $5,500
Austin Hooper vs Philadelphia – TE – $3,900