Tyler’s DFS Tips – NFL Week 10 by Tyler Arthur
My Tips This Week
A little expensive, but huge upside.
Every single week, Kyler Murray has a rushing floor, and then upside is added based on his passing performance. This week, that upside is looking as promising as ever. Facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers literally gives him the highest ceiling he’ll have all year, as well as the scrambling and rushing floor. His price is up at $6,500 due to this matchup, but it honestly might be worth it. I like Murray this week and you could definitely look at a possible stack, with the likes of Christian Kirk in the plus matchup.
Great matchup, reliable, not completely bank-breaking.
After returning last week from his thumb injury and immediately picking up where he left off with a 28.9 fantasy point game, Drew Brees is looking like he hasn’t lost a step. This Sunday he is facing the Falcons, which is a very good thing for a QB, and he could be in for another big afternoon. Against Arizona, his line was 373 yards with 3 TD’s and an interception, and if a similar output repeats, he will pay for his price tag of $6,700. My favourite QB on the slate is still Lamar Jackson, but he’s very expensive and Brees offers somewhat similar upside, as long as the Falcons fight and make this a shootout.
Good matchup, fantastic volume at an affordable price.
One of the highest volume players in the league, the Jets – whether the team is good or not – is using Le’Veon Bell in a way that is great for fantasy football. There is so much to like for him this week. Up against the Giants, I like the matchup for both running and catching the ball underneath. The volume is rare, and most importantly, the price doesn’t reflect it. He is only $6,900, and yet you’re expecting him to get 15+ touches on a weekly basis. Matchup, volume, price – I love Bell this week as either an RB2 if you’re splashing at the top, or a great RB1 if you’re looking to spread your money more evenly.
inally breaking out, good price, nice matchup.
After a couple of very strong weeks back to back, (27.7 and then 22.6 fantasy points), the Chicago Bears rookie running back, David Montgomery, doesn’t appear to have had his price adjusted. Now, first things first, when a player starts doing a better job, you expect their price to go up, but there’s something else that should have put the price much higher than the $5,300 he costs. Last week he was just 100 less than that price, and his opponent was the Philadelphia Eagles – one of the better run defenses in the league, and a team who funnel your offense through the air. The fact that he succeeded against the Eagles is impressive, and the lack of price change now that he faces the subpar Lions defense makes me even more excited to put him in my lineup as my second or third running back for Week 10.
If you’re spending up…
If you’re spending up at the wide receiver position this week, there is only one place to go, and that’s Michael Thomas, hosting the Falcons. At $8,300 it might even be an understatement to say ‘spending up’, and I am personally not one to pay up for WR’s at the top, but this matchup is too good. The stack potential with Brees is obvious, and you could even go with Kamara too, but I think that on his own, Thomas has a big floor and massive upside. The Falcons defense struggles in general, but against the Saints it could really have difficulties.
Volume is king, the matchup doesn’t hurt.
Sam Darnold has had a tough year, the Jets have as a whole, honestly, but there is one element of consistency that is refreshing, and that is the consistent love that Darnold has for throwing the ball short to Jamison Crowder. Last week what should be a floor play turned into a legitimately positive fantasy week, with him putting up 22.3 fantasy points. The simple fact is that you play someone like Crowder for his floor and hope that his volume just turns a cheap player into a stable amount of points, maybe 10-15. But as soon as he scored a TD, suddenly he ends up with a really nice output for cheap. This week his price has gone down (courtesy of not facing Miami) to $5,000 and he is playing against the Giants, who haven’t exactly got a defense that I’m scared of, quite the opposite.
Surprisingly safe, but with real upside.
While it doesn’t feel any nicer to use Dolphins for fantasy just because they’ve now won a game, I am actually interested to see how they get on from here on out. Ryan Fitzpatrick is doing his absolute best to completely ruin the Tank for Tua campaign, and I am here for it. Unfortunately Preston Williams is out for the rest of the year after tearing his ACL, and now I think it’s time to return to DeVante Parker as our fantasy Dolphin of choice. While you might think of Parker as a boom or bust type of player, he’s actually been incredibly consistent over the course of this season. He had one bad week against New England, but outside of that he has only finished with less than 10 points once, and he has averaged 14.6 points over the last five weeks. At a great price of just $4,800, I would be more than happy with 15 fantasy points, and yet his upside is way higher than that, especially if Fitzmagic is on a mission to screw up their draft pick even more this week in Indianapolis.
Surely it has to happen eventually. O.J Howard can’t be bad all year, surely. Based on that logic, he needs to do something food eventually, and this week is the best week to bet it’ll happen. The Bucs are facing the best TE opponent in the league, the Arizona Cardinals. So far, Howard’s season high is a disappointing 9.6 points. This week he should be returning after missing a couple of weeks with injury, and the matchup is literally perfect, so it’s our last chance. At a very affordable price of $3,300, it might be the one time that you want to run O.J Howard out there. Good luck.
Most reliable option, but more expensive.
This week is a weird one, and the tight end position is gross. The Thursday Night Football game took away two of the best TE’s in the league, Evan Engram is injured, and Travis Kelce’s quarterback situation is only just fluctuating back towards where we want it. I think that the only Tight End that’s completely safe is Austin Hooper. At $5,500 he isn’t as expensive as Kelce, but he has a decent matchup which should force Atlanta to throw and he should have Matt Ryan back ready to go. The best Tight End in fantasy this year, so far, Hooper is as reliable an option you’ll get at TE this year. If you don’t find any cheap value you like, Hoop is probably the safest bet.
You guys know the drill. I am taking the cheapest defense that I can see getting some points and run with it. The Bills offense is one which can turn the ball over, and the Cleveland Browns defense has playmakers, so that’s where we’re going. I’m envisaging a couple of sacks and some pressure on throws that Josh Allen might be wiser not to throw, and hopefully that leads to an interception or two. The upside isn’t the same as the more expensive defenses, but at $2,500 you can’t go wrong.
QB – Matt Ryan @ New Orleans – $6,100
RB – Mark Ingram @ Cincinnati – $7,100
RB – Bilal Powell vs New York Giants – $3,000 [If Le’Veon Bell doesn’t play]
WR – Christian Kirk @ Tampa Bay – $5,200
WR – Golden Tate @ New York Jets – $5,900
TE – Jonnu Smith vs Kansas City – $3,500 [If Delanie Walker doesn’t play]