Tyler’s DFS Tips – NFL Week 10 by Tyler Arthur
2020 DK Tips Week 10 – Tyler’s Tips
My Tips This Week
Matchup is everything.
While he’s been pretty uninspiring for the majority of the year, it is clear that with the weapons around him, Jared Goff has as high a ceiling as any on a weekly basis, especially with a good matchup. This week he has the best matchup you can have in 2020, with the high-flying Seattle Seahawks. Their offense is on fire and their D, while seemingly better over the last two weeks, is a great target for fantasy passing weapons and their QB’s. The Rams weapons are all in play here, but Goff is a particularly nice target because of his price and where it fits in the slate – at $6,500, he is cheaper than the elite QB’s but he has a good enough matchup that his upside is still as high as ever. He has a 30+ point upside if he gets it going, and he has awesome stack potential with his offensive weapons.
Better matchup than suggested, not as gross as it seems.
I know it doesn’t sound good, but hear me out on Carson Wentz this week. The top guys will be good, and you can spend up if you want to, but I think it would be silly to overlook the Eagles QB’s efforts (for fantasy, I should specify) in a pretty horrendous season for the team. Averaging 21.3 fantasy points per game despite a lack of weapons and some serious problems at offensive line is pretty impressive, and this week the gift of being in the NFC East returns in the form of a trip to the Giants. I like the matchup, and at just $5,900 it is seriously enticing to me, with a bad defense and his offense starting to get back to health. Jalen Reagor is healthy now, Dallas Goedert is back, Travis Fulgham has been a pleasant surprise, and I think Wentz is a sneaky option this week at a good valuable.
If CMC misses, he is a lock.
This pick is so obvious to me that I don’t know if it’s even necessary to write it, and I wasn’t going to, but then I started seeing people worrying about it and I have to jump in and make this clear. If you are playing in a cash game on Draft Kings this weekend, and Christian McCaffrey doesn’t suit up, you basically have to choose Mike Davis. I realise that in his last two weeks as the lead running back, Davis got 9 fantasy points, and I completely understand the fear of the Tampa Bay defense, but it’s all irrelevant. It is irrelevant because Mike Davis costs $4,000. Yes, the minimum price that a running back can possibly be. If McCaffrey doesn’t play, Davis is a lock for a minimum of 12-15 touches, and his ability to be involved in the passing game combined with him having the role to himself would make him a must-start at the price.
Back at full health, good matchup, great player.
Last week fantasy players watched with baited breath as Aaron Jones was back in the Green Bay offense, and the expectation of his slightly tempered workload worried people, but then he came out of the gates like he’d never left, and had 15 carries upon his return, and also converted all five of his targets into catches. The production on his 20 touches were quite low, and he finished with just 12.9 points, but now we know he’s healthy and his role is right back where it was before. This week he has a matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, which is a good matchup, and his price is significantly below that of the top two running backs, at a reasonable $7,100. I think that a few of the backs from the 7-6.5k range are going to be popular, but I think Aaron Jones is poised for a big game this week.
BONUS PICK: J.D. McKissic
Out of absolutely nowhere.
Last week Kyle Allen got hurt and left the game, bringing in everybody’s sweetheart Alex Smith, in his return season after a gruesome injury of his own. Every fan was excited to see Smith healthy and in action, but the biggest benefactor of this change is receiving back J.D McKissic. I love Antonio Gibson, and I think he is the most talented player in the backfield, and that he deserves a full three-down workload, but the Washington coaches clearly don’t, and with Alex Smith at quarterback, the checkdown quantity is going to be out of this world. McKissic was already getting involved with Kyle Allen, but last week he reached new heights with a frankly hilarious 14 targets, which he turned into 9 catches for 65 yards. At just $4,900, you can expect 6+ catches as his floor, which is awesome in the DK full PPR scoring system, and if you want to go with some expensive receivers, you can trade the usual target of finding an RB with high carry counts and take advantage of the PPR at a discount.
This price is insane.
After returning last week from a frankly insane period of absence – eight weeks, for various reasons throughout –Michael Thomas should finally be able to start his season now. The Saints star receiver is obviously extremely talented and he is a featured part of the offense, who has huge volume whenever he is healthy, but fantasy players (especially in redraft) are seriously disappointed. I’m going to try and take advantage of that disappointment. In Week 9, Thomas only got 6 targets, and logged just 55% of snaps in the offense, which is abnormally low and is surely cause for panic? Not if you watched the game. New Orleans absolutely embarrassed Tampa, and so the entire offense had its snap counts and volume shifted (Drew Brees only had 82%), so there is an opportunity to cash in on the uncertainty. And the best part, Thomas is priced a frankly insane $7,400 against San Francisco this week, which is a huge discount on the $9,000 tag that was attached to him in Week 1 and for the majority of last season. If Thomas is able to play and gets a regular snap count, he will be worth much more than this and I’m taking the discount while I can.
Great volume, TD threat, perfect matchup.
We’ve already spoken about Jared Goff, and the matchup against this Seahawks defense, and now I have to talk about his number one weapon. The thing we always stress on the Daft Kings Podcast [which is every Friday night at 7PM, by the way] is the volume that receivers and tight ends get. Targets are more important than any other stat. Production is impossible without volume, and so seeing the target share is very important. If you want top talk about targets, you have to talk about Cooper Kupp, who received 20 in Week 8 before their bye week. 20 targets. In one game. Everybody knows that the Rams wideout is a target machine, but having 25% target share of their team is something else. The ninth-most targeted WR in the league this season, against the literal bestmatchup possible, I am smashing Kupp in my lineups this week. He costs $6,900 and I think his floor this week is a minimum of probably 15 points, with major upside, especially if he gets some of the positive regression in his touchdown numbers, as I’ve been expecting.
The underrated beast on this offense.
The Los Angeles Chargers have been a popular source of fantasy assets for multiple years, and this season they have been particularly awesome in the passing game, with the emergence of Justin Herbert, the rookie from Oregon. I could tip every single week saying to play Herbert, and I have wanted to tip Keenan Allen literally every week since Week 2, but that’s easy. Instead, I want to give a shoutout to his teammate Mike Williams. Known as a big play specialist who serves as a deep threat (which is accurate, in fairness), Williams actually gets legit volume, and has been looking great this season. Over the past two weeks, in Denver and then hosting the Raiders, he has hauled in 10 catches on 15 targets. That is serious volume, and the production is solid too. At $5,400, Williams’ price has started to move up, but I still think that he is a great value.
Volume has always been good, now it’s time to produce.
We are getting down the stretch of the season, and we are finally in a position where we can say Evan Engram had a good week, and project him to try and have more. His first touchdown of the year came last week, and he has strung together three games in a row in double digits, and with the tight end landscape this year, double digits is the target. Engram has had decent volume all year, but the production hasn’t clicked, and in this matchup with the Eagles, I’m trying to ride the wave and hope he continues with this streak of consistency. Any TE who scores a touchdown is immediately amazing, but the fact that Engram can actually put up some yardage gives me hope that you’re not just praying for a score. At $4,500 his value is in a spot where you can get to him without downgrading elsewhere, and while the floor is where people worry about Engram, his upside is bigger than most.
He’s back, and he’s underrated.
The Cleveland Browns are not what they were a few years ago, there is fantasy relevance to be had in this offense, and they are getting two of their best players back this week. Nick Chubb is back off IR (I absolutely adore him this week if they clear him to play with a full workload), and Austin Hooper should be returning after his appendix surgery. Hooper is priced at the same $3,900 he was before he got the operation, but now without Odell Beckham Jr. soaking up targets. In the weeks where Beckham and Hooper have been absent, second and third string tight ends Harrison Bryant and David Njoku have been genuinely awesome, and now we get Hooper back in this role as the de facto TE for the offense, in a good matchup against the Texans. This value is awesome and I’ve got Hooper down for a double-digit floor with touchdown upside.
Twice in one week I’m making a gross pick by believing that the Philadelphia Eagles might do something. I honestly don’t even know if they will win this game, but their QB and defense can score fantasy points either way. The Philly defense has actually been better than you think, fantasy-wise at least, averaging 3.5 sacks per game, and with two separate 18+ point games this season. While their price at $3,600 is definitely higher than you’d expect, I feel people need to know that the Eagles defense is actually legitimately decent for fantasy, and this week they will have big upside due to the Giants’ struggles.
Deshaun Watson @ Cleveland – QB – $6,900
Nick Chubb vs Houston – RB – $6,800 [If he’s starting, I really like the matchup]
Antonio Gibson @ Detroit – RB – $5,600
Will Fuller @ Cleveland – WR – $6,700
Jerry Jeudy @ Las Vegas – WR – $5,600
Dallas Goedert @ New York – TE – $4,200