James’ DFS Tips – NFL Week 9 by James Platt
JAMES’ JUGGERNAUT DRAFT KINGS LINEUP Week 9
My Tips This Week
They may have gotten blown out by the Chiefs, but that happens to most teams. Drew Lock orchestrated a beautiful drive to hand the Chargers a loss in week 8 as the clock rolled to triple zeros. He had a stinker of a first half but turned it around in a big way in the second half for over 20 points. He’s the ridiculously cheap price of $5,200 against a Falcons defence, well, we know how bad the Falcons defence is (10th most points to QBs.) If Teddy wasn’t playing in a monsoon last Thursday night I’d expect he would have lit them up too, so now we look for Lock to embarrass them. In the four games prior to last week, the Atlanta defence had failed to keep passers below 300 yards.
They call me the backup whisperer…ok, no one calls me that but I do love tipping cheap backups and then they…sometimes pay off. Minshew was playing consistently well in this offence so I don’t know why the Jags were thinking of benching him but the injury he has apparently been dealing with finally caught up to him and now Luton will get the start vs this Texans defence. In week 5, Minshew threw for 300 yards and 2 TDsagainst Houston so we’re hoping for a similar performance from rookie 6th-rounder Jake Luton. But even, if he scores around 15 points, do we care for this price? This allows you to pick up a lot more studs at other positions and I think he has a pretty high floor in this matchup.
Here is Luton’s fallback option. James Robinson has been a revelation for the Jags and is an absolute stud. Before their bye week he produced a sensational 34.7 points, and he should be leaned on heavily again with Luton starting. The Chargers haven’t been great against the run and the Texans have been downright disgustingly awful against the run. Add in a few check downs from Luton and Robinson could eclipse his season high total. I’d say this is my favourite matchup of the week other than Dalvin Cook against the Lions, however, you’d have to pay an extra $1,200 for him this week. Although with my cheap picks this week maybe you can squeeze both of them on a team.
We’re hoping that Breida plays this game, all signs point to him playing but he did miss practice on Wednesday. Doesn’t get any cheaper and he should be starting in an offence with a good opportunity to score. Arizona are far better against the pass than they are the run and Tuadidn’t seem to be all that polished as a passer in his first week as a starter so I see them leaning on the running game again this week. Miles Gaskin is out a couple of weeks with a knee issue and Breida is fresh with only 37 rushing attempts on the season.
You have to choose one of the Seattle receivers each week because one of them will go off. After Lockett’s huge game two weeks ago, San Francisco decided to focus on him and DK Metcalf destroyed them. This was what happened in Arizona when they decided to focus on Metcalf, Lockett took over the game. You pick your poison and the other guy will ruin your life. I suspect the Bills will put task Tre’Davious White with locking up Metcalf which will leave Lockett to burn Josh Norman or whoever the Bills decide get the unlucky job. He’s also $1,000 cheaper than Metcalf for very similar fantasy production.
Back in week 5 was when we saw Brandin Cooks first big game of the years, a massive 33.1 points against these same Jags and he hasn’t slowed down too much since then. He’s had 18 targets and 35 points over the last two games and the offence has definitely gotten him more involved since O’Brien was given the boot. He’s nice and cheap after cooling off from his week 5 explosion, even though he’s the No.3 receiver from weeks 5-7. 12 receivers have finished with double digit games against the Jags so far in 2020 and Cooks will be the 13th, maybe 14th or 15th with Fuller and Cobb also able to explode in this offence.
Well, I like Lock, so I should like his favourite target from week 8 too. Tim Patrick will likely be back this week so he might detract from Jeudy a little, but the rookie receiver had 10 targets a week ago vs the Chargers. He might not be getting looks in the redzone and he may have only caught four of the ten targets last week but he’s a stud and eventually they will score touchdowns and produce huge plays. Like I said, if there was no rain last week, I think the Panthers win that game with huge plays from Anderson and Moore, but under the dome, we should see Jeudy getting away from this awful Atlanta secondary.
I never thought we’d see Mark Andrews below $5,000 but the bug that’s bitten Andrews is the same bug that’s effected all tight ends in the 2020 season. We thought he was reliable, but he just wasn’t involved against the Eagles and then he had a tough matchup against the Steelers resulting in a price drop. Admittedly he is still the 4th most expensive tight end but that’s just the state of the market. The Colts are theoretically a tough matchup, but they really haven’t come up against many true talents at the position so far in 2020 and the one who I’d count (Hockenson) got into double digit points. I think Andrews re-establishes himself as a top-3 guy as the Ravens look to get right.
I’m all over this Texans – Jags matchup and for good reason. Darren Fells is having another surprisingly good season but his time is over and it’s time for Jordan Akins to finally prove he is the guy for the Texans at tight end. He finally comes back from injury after three weeks and he has a great matchup for himself and his QB. The Jags allow the 4ht-most points to tight ends, allowing an average 60 yards a game and almost always giving up a TD to the position so as long as Akins plays (which he should) I think he’s an absolute smash at this price.
You could go the other way in this matchup and take the Dolphins defence but they seem a prime candidate for regression. The Cardinals have managed roughly 10 points for the past three weeks and for a defence under $3,000, that’s about what you’re looking for. Tua only managed 93 yards and a TD against the Rams in his debut and their starting RB is now out so I wouldn’t expect many points to be dropped on them by the offence here. Add in the struggles of the Miami O-line and we could see a ceiling of about 15 points for the Arizona defence.