James’ DFS Tips – NFL Week 4 by James Platt
JAMES’ JUGGERNAUT DRAFT KINGS LINEUP WEEK 4
My Tips This Week
The Texans are having a bad start to the year. At 0-3 and still a few tough games to go, they’ll need a hell of a second half to the season if they want to make the playoffs. This week might be their saving grace with Minnesota coming in after a disappointing loss to the Titans after they were winning for most of the game. The 11-person unit they put out and call a “defence” is disgusting bad and I think Watson is ready to take advantage of this much easier matchup. Minnesota aren’t getting after QB without Hunter which solves the issue of Houston’s O-line and Watson has been averaging 18.5 points against legit defences so far. The Vikings are also currently allowing the third-most passing yards, so I expect a big day for Watson which is great while is price is viable.
If you don’t see it this week then you’re blind. We might not have expected a massive day on Thursday night football but Fitzmagic is still the man and he’s having another legitimately decent fantasy season. This week they play the Seahawks, very unlikely to win, but very likely to keep hammering the ball downfield in an effort to keep up with Mr Unlimited Russell Wilson. At $5,400 he’s about as cheap as it gets and against the Seahawks defence who just fall apart to the passing game and give up an average 28.6 points to QBs, it should be easy money, he may be a little chalky for that reason though. Over the past two weeks, Fitzpatrick is actually the QB9 and is playing well enough to keep any chants for Tua to a minimum. Keep Howard and Breidain the stables and let the beard work his magic!
I’ll be honest I kind of forgot about Helaire after his week 1 breakout performance in the season opener but I spotted his price and I thought it’s a no-brainer. Kareem Hunt had a similar breakout performance in the season opener against the Patriots in week 1 two seasons ago and it’s all because of how many weapons there are on that offense. Belichick will try to limit the damage done by Kelce and Hill so I feel like this should be a big workload day for Helaire. With 14 targets in the last two weeks it makes him a tasty looking target for the $6,400 range. Plus, the Patriots haven’t been great against receiving backs so far this year (probably because they lost their three starting linebackers from 2019) allowing almost 95% of passes to be caught to backs in the open.
I suddenly want to take a closer look at the Bears now that BDN has come in. Cohen sadly tore his ACL last week so it was a good thing he managed to sign that contract two weeks ago, but it’s also a good thing for David Montgomery. Montgomery was never viewed as a three-down back but he might as well be now that Cohen is out for the season. In the first few weeks he’s proven that he can make people miss and run through contact consistently. An interesting stat, per PFF, is that the only two running backs to gain 2 yards after contact on a higher percentage of carries are Chris Carson and Austin Ekeler. While we think of Cohen as the main catching back in Chicago, Montgomery has over 30 receptions the past two years so it’s not like he’s a slouch in that regard either. Don’t get me wrong, the Colts defence has been good but I feel like they haven’t really faced any good offences (Jets, Vikings, Jags) yet to prove it.
I didn’t believe in Diggs last week and I got burned. I tipped John Brown, he was limited in practice, he played 29 snaps and didn’t see a single target. I don’t know what happened there but I’m not making the same mistake twice (watch him go for 20+ points this week.) Diggs has been a monster and the trade from the Vikings is looking pretty good right about now. He might not have had many targets last week but he still has the highest target share on the team and possesses over 30% of the air yards for the Bills. I always like to target the Raiders but this game has a surprisingly high over/under so there could be a number of good plays in this matchup. I just like Diggs to go over the top once or twice in this game that could be a shootout.
The Browns offense is still a bit of a question mark to me but Stefanski seems to be making it work after bad week 1. OBJ is a little banged up and Landry’s price had me salivating I can’t lie. He’s only managed 8 points the last two games and he just hasn’t seen the targets we thought he would. The number of passes just hasn’t been there, with two elite running backs, Mayfield hasn’t had to throw it as much and that means there isn’t as many targets and OBJ has gotten double what Landry has. The Cowboys will more than likely make this a shootout with their arsenal of weapons and Cleveland can’t keep up giving the ball to Chubb and Hunt every snap which gives us the volume we want. Plus, the Cowboys have an awful defence that was broken in half by the Seahawks. The top two corners for Dallas are still out and they’ve had a drop rate for opposing receivers far higher than anyone else, per PFF.
It seems like everyone is out on Cooks again and, would it be that surprising to see him traded AGAIN this offseason? Randall Cobb even seems to be favourited over Cooks right now but just like with Watson I think is Cooks week to get right against the first bad defence they have faced. He didn’t have a bad game against the Ravens with 14.5 points but now his price is irresistible at $4,500, down from $5,200 a week ago. He still tied Will Fuller for the team-lead in targets, it was just against a great Steelers defence. Cooks seems to be healthy and that’s all you can ask from him, this is a player who has racked up 1,000 yards wherever he is.
Everyone was hyped for the year of Blake Jarwin but that ended in week 1 and we had to suddenly come to terms with the Dalton Schultz era. With the amount of weapons on the Cowboys you’d expect one of the big receivers or Zeke to be the leader of RedZone targets. But no. It’s Dalton Schultz. He’s had 16 targets over the past two weeks and against Atlanta he had a huge game. This will be another shootout and the Browns have been allowing a lot of passes to go to tight ends who aren’t household names. I’d expect a lot of targets and more recognition for the new tight end of America’s team. Also shoutout to anyone who had Cedrick Wilson on their team last week.
Everyone used to meme Gesicki but he’s turned into a relevant tight end this season with another strong year from Fitzpatrick. I couldn’t tip Fitz and not tip one of his pass catchers. According to PFF, he is their second-ranked tight end and so far he’s had 12 catches for 175 catches and 2 TDs. In week 2, he produced an insane30 points on DraftKings against the Bills who are from a slouch on defence. I’m hoping he continues to be inconsistent and just have huge weeks like that and that this week is one of them. The over/under for this weekagainst the Seahawks is 54 so I’d expect a lot of that to be from Seattle but the Dolphins will put up some points here. Jamal Adams has taken care of tight ends so far this season but he looks like he may be out with a groin injury and even if he plays, Gesicki is explosive and groin injuries aren’t kind. You could even see Adams not on Gesicki as he plays a lot from the slot.
I was hot on the Buccaneers defence coming into the season but they’ve been even better than I thought. In the last two weeks they’ve had double-digit points with 11 sacks in those contests. This week they face the Chargers and Justin Herbert who is still finding his feet after being thrust into the starting lineup in week 2. The backend of the Bucs defence is also turning into a quietly good unit as they’ve had four picks in the last two weeks aswell. Todd Bowles deserves another, legitimate shot at a head coaching gig.