James’ DFS Tips – NFL Week 14 by James Platt
JAMES’ JUGGERNAUT DRAFT KINGS LINEUP
My Tips This Week
In comes the big bad Tampa Bay Buccaneers to destroy Kirk’s hot streak. But over the past four games, the Bucs have given up the third-most points to QBs at an average of 24.6 points per game. Kirk is coming in on a three-game average of 27.8 points. It’s not primetime, his receivers are murdering defenders each week and Dalvin Cook makes sure they can always grind out a first down to keep drives alive. This offence is clicking, and they might just find their way into the playoffs if Kirk continues slinging it the way he has. He needs to make up for the flaws in their defence so he will pick apart the Bucs.
I was tempted by his usual black magic against Detroit a week ago but I was right to be wary as he only managed 14 points. Unfortunately, that didn’t give him a price decrease but he’s still cheap enough against the Texans in week 14 that I want to bang the table for Mitch. I even hate them I’m writing this tip but I cannot deny the value that he offers DFS players this week. I doubt he’ll have high ownership because…well, he’s Mitch Trubisky and two weeks ago he dropped 22 points on Green Bay. Houston might be well known for giving up huge days on the ground, but they are almost as bad through the air.
I think Philip Lindsay’s time as a Denver Bronco might be coming to an end after he turned 14 attempts into just 26 yards against the Chiefs. Why the Broncos insisted on giving Lindsay that volume when Gordon out rushed him by a ratio of 5/1 is anyone’s guess but let’s hope it doesn’t happen again. We’ve been targeting the Panthers all year for rushing matchups and because Lindsay is still a threat to take away touches from Gordon we get him at this lovely little price of $5,200. If Lindsay does still somehow snatch away half the carries I think we all need to march to Denver with pitch forks and torches and demand Vic Fangio’s resignation.
I almost feel bad picking on the Cowboys at this point, but you can’t ignore this matchup. Dallas along with Houston have given up almost 5 points more than any other team to opposing RBs over the last month. I don’t know what’s in the water in Texas, but Giovani Bernard should be able to get out of his slump in this game. He’s been the go-to guy since Mixon went down and he is out again in week 14. He did very well in weeks 6-8 but hasn’t passed the double-digit mark since then. He has had a number of tough matchups and the QB change hasn’t helped matters but he should be able to find success and for $5,000 he should be able to help us win some real money.
Can COVID help win us some DFS tourneys this week? Unfortunately, DJ Moore has contracted coronavirus which means he is out for the week. Curtis Samuel is currently on the COVID list as close contact and at time of writing he won’t be playing. This leads to a huge uptick in target share for Robby Anderson who has had a huge year. The Broncos also lost their top cornerback in the last week with AJ Bouye getting a suspension for the rest of the year. Even if Samuel plays, Anderson will be the undisputed No.1 target and, even if the Broncos focus solely on him, I can see Robby burning them deep for a TD
Right, this is one of those picks where you just have to trust me, ok? Yes, I know Allen Lazard has averaged about eight points in his three games back. Yes, I know he was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice. Yes, I know he only put up 7.5 points against the Lions in week 2 of this season. And I’m here to tell you I don’t care about any of that. Ok, maybe I do a little but I’m here to tell you that this is his game that brings the national media attention back to him. Listen, Adams will get his, he always does. MVS will inevitably drop a long bomb catch. But, Lazard will edge over the 20-point mark this week against the Lions defence that has come down from their Patricia firing-induced high.
My cheap as chips pick died a horrible death with Breshad Perriman a week ago but we go again! Tim Patrick has been on a tear the last few weeks if you ignore the week where he literally didn’t have a quarterback. Now, the Panthers might look a little more daunting on the season sitting in the middle giving up 36 points per game to receivers but over the last month they’ve slipped to the 6th worst team against receivers for an average of 43 points. Patrick caught just four balls for 44 yards last week against the Chiefs, but he scored both of the Bronco’s TDs. The week before the Kendall Hinton incident he put up over 100 yards and had eight targets. He’s had enough production throughout the season that I’m confident he can provide excellent value at $4,200.
Shocker, Reed has had another season ravaged by injury, but he has managed to stay healthy for the month he’s come back off IR. Him and Nick Mullens seem to have a decent connection and he found the endzone against the Bills. He’s scored double-digit points in two of his last four, but this could blow up in your face, which is why he’s only $3,500. In a year where you can only trust about three tight ends week-after-week, you could do a lot worse than Reed against Washington who are 28th in the league against tight ends.
When in doubt at tight end, target the Bengals. They might not be nearly as bad as the 2019 Cardinals against opposing tight ends, but they are awful. I’ve tipped Engram and Gesicki in the last two weeks who both put up over 12 points on this defence. Even with the Cowboys offence floundering each week, Schultz has been somewhat consistent averaging 9.7 points in his last five games, which in 2020 is a godsend at that position. If you want to target the Bengals no matter who a team has at tight end, I fully endorse you doing so.
Washington Football Team
I think this is the easiest pick of the week after the defence ruined Pittsburgh’s undefeated chances in week 13. They are playing way better than anyone thought they could thanks to the defensive line and some elite pickups on the backend. San Francisco have given up an average of 11 points to defences in their four games and they are coming off a disappointing performance against the Bills. Like I mentioned, Jordan Reed might spring free for a TD as it’s really the only area that Washington struggle in but it should be another strong defensive win for a surging WFT.