James’ DFS Tips – NFL Week 13 by James Platt
Bit of an uptick for me last week, few really good picks as we head into the home straight here. Let’s finish this season strong and head off into the playoffs in a blaze of glory.
My Tips This Week
Sam Darnold hasn’t been the guy that many were expecting him to be coming back from injury, or has he? In the last three weeks, the only QB to have more fantasy points than Darnold is Lamar Jackson who is lighting the league on fire. If you look at the last four weeks then that only puts Josh Allen above him, who is also having a stellar second season in the NFL. This shouldn’t come as a surprise as the Jets schedule has lightened up considerably these past three weeks. After a beatdown of the Raiders last week, this offense seems to be firing on all cylinders, not something you can often say about an Adam Gase led team recently. Against the Bengals this is another great game for the Jets to feel good about themselves with a defence that had allowed five straight 20-point QB games before the Steelers were a mess in week 12.
Coming off the three game Ryan Finley experiment we have Andy Dalton once again and it looks as if Draft Kings have priced him in as the back up at just $4,700 this week. I looked back at some of Daltons stat lines before he was benched and yes, while he only had a 9:8 TD to INT ratio, he was still nearing or above 20 points in most games this season. The Bengals were throwing the ball nearly 70% of the time when Dalton was their starter and were running the ball with Mixon nearly 55% of the time when he was benched. If you take a look at their opponent, the Jets actually have the No. 1 ranked rushing defence coming into week 13 so that bodes well for a 70/30 split where Dalton has a lot of chances against the weaker secondary. It falls on Daltons shoulders to prevent an 0-16 season and I think he will be playing balls to the wall now that his greatest fear of being benched has already came to fruition. As you can see I like both QBs in this matchup and shows that just because a game might look a bit lacklustre, fantasy can come from anywhere.
Phillip Lindsay seems to finally have broken free of Royce Freeman and he is seeing significantly more work than him. Just so happens that the Broncos offense is now a smouldering dumpster fire. Drew Lock has been sent to IR, so we’re stuck watching Brandon Allen play the rest of the season, while he hasn’t been bad, he doesn’t exactly spread out the defence for Lindsay to see less eight-man fronts. It is encouraging however that Lindsay is getting the red zone touches and this week they face the LA Chargers who rank 6th in most fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs so I like Lindsay to score here for the low price of $5,000.
Ronald Jones has been frustrating, as is most of the Buccaneers offense when it comes to fantasy. I tipped him not too long ago and he had a big burst into national headlines, catching an insane number of passes and in the past two weeks he didn’t do so well. However, this week they go up against the Jacksonville Jaguars who seem to be falling apart on defence. If you ignore Derrick Henrys big week that he always has against the Jags then Carlos Hyde had 160 yards on them three weeks ago and over 100 yards from two running backs courtesy of the Colts. He’s only $5,100 which seems extremely cheap in what figures to be an outstanding plus matchup for him. If Jones doesn’t gain 100 yards I will shocked, the Jags allow 1.8 yards per carry before they even contact the ball carrier which is the most in the league and have given up 15 touchdowns on the ground which is the second most in the NFL.
It’s a conversation every week whether it’s Mike Evans or Chris Godwin’s turn for the spotlight. Last week it was Godwin with an insane game, this week it’s Evans turn. Although he has laid a goose egg at points this season (See: Saints game), Evans is averaging 19.9 fantasy points per game and this week he has been dropped to $6,900 while Godwin is a lofty $7,700. I think this is a much better matchup for Evans as he faces the Jags outside corners which are easier to play than their slot corners which give up the 6th fewest points against slot receivers. Winston often plays his best football when the Bucs are out of playoff contention and into December, so I expect a big day from Evans here.
With the return of Dalton I expect Boyd to get a lot more looks and we know that Dalton is a much more competent passer than Finley might ever be. Boyd is still just $5,500 and he is the No. 1 option in an offense that is going to have to air it out against the Jets stout run defence. While they’ve improved recently, the Jets are allowing the 6th most fantasy points to opposing receivers and I think Boyd will be wanting to avoid that 0-16 record as he is locked into the Bengals for at least the next couple of years.
Now we come to my gut play of the week at receiver, they have been duds the past two weeks, can’t even lie. This week it’s Allen Hurns of the Miami Dolphins. Since Preston Williams went out they’ve lacked a true second option at receiver but the past two weeks we’ve seen an increase in targets for Hurns who just signed a contract extension with the team. He even managed to bring in a touchdown for the team last week and we all know Fitzpatrick doesn’t give two shits about the Dolphins draft position. If Hurns gets open, Fitz will hit him in stride for a big TD and for $4,000, that’s the upside I drool over.
With an average of seven targets in his last four games Greg Olsen at $4,400 looks like a nice value play at tight end. Against a Washington team coming in high off a win vs the Lions they might be playing a little better and have a little more motivation, but they will still be the same team who allows passes to be caught under 10 yards at a higher rate than any other team. They also allow a TD on 25% of their drives so I like the chance of Olsen finding the endzone this week.
Ebron is out which means his targets have to go somewhere, Jack Doyle is only $3,300 so he represents great value for the amount of volume he could be getting. If you really want to you can gamble on Mo Alie-Cox at $2,500 but I’m not sure I’d be comfortable taking that risk as he could come up with nothing. Doyle has been receiving a steady flow of catches and targets, the uptick gives him a real chance to score for this offense that has had some injuries recently.
Green Bay Packers
Daniel Jones likes to take sacks and turnover the ball at a high rate which is what we like with the Packers this week and their defence for $3,400. They’ve transformed their defence into a ball hawking, sack machine that still gives up a lot of points. Lets’ pray for a pick six to erase the points lost when Jones scores four touchdowns.
The Broncos still have a lot of talent, but they seem to fudge it every single week. It will be interesting to see where they go in the offseason but I’m picking them this week because they are facing the Chargers and I think this might be River’s final season. Every time he throws the ball it looks like it physically pains him and that it’s the hardest thing he’s ever done. If we see another four-interception game we’ll be laughing all the way to the bank with the Denver defence listed for $3,000.
QB Jameis Winston [email protected] $6,300: Plays his best football at this time of year and picks don’t matter, he is a monster when the Bucs are out of the playoffs.
RB Christian McCaffrey [email protected] $10,500: I strayed from him last week and I regretted it greatly, get him on your team no matter who you have to sub out.
RB Josh Jacobs [email protected] $6,900: Has the price he deserves and has a plus matchup against a Chiefs defence who loves giving points to opposing runners.
WR Robby Anderson [email protected] $4,800: Getting hot these past couple of weeks and Darnold is balling, look for a strong showing against this Bengals coverage.
TE Gerald Everett [email protected] $4,600: The Cardinals have been awful all year against tight, but that offense is struggling of late, proceed with caution.