James’ DFS Tips – NFL Week 13 by James Platt
JAMES’ JUGGERNAUT DRAFT KINGS LINEUP Week 13
My Tips This Week
We always talk about players having a good floor. I’m not sure if there’s a player in the league with better floor than Aaron Rodgers and he’s only $6,800. In week 6, he had 6 points and in week 2 he had 19 points, other than that he’s scored more than 23.53 points in every game. That’s an insane level of consistency with three of those games also passing the 30-point mark. He’s been past the $7k mark for about half the season so to get him at this price just because he’s against the Eagles who are decent against QBs, I really like the value that you’re getting with this pick.
Jared Goff is not good at football. Jared Goff had a stinker of a game last Sunday. But we’re tipping him, for some reason. Let’s start with the matchup, he’s against the Cardinals on the road (Goff is averaging about double fantasy points on the road compared to at home.) He will likely find himself in a shootout if Murray is feeling a little healthier and that means there will be ample passing opportunities. The Cardinals defence may have an old Pat Peterson, but that’s all they have and that’s why they give the 3rd most points to opposing QBs. Goff is top-10 in many of the major QB stats, he’s exceeded 23 points four times this season and I think this is the week he gets right again in an NFC West battle.
Ekeler came back and immediately stole back all the touches. We thought they’d just ease him in but no, from the first snap, Ekeler just took everything. He managed 24 points in his first game back and he received a boost to match that output to the tune of a sweet $1,000. The Patriots defence is particularly woeful in the front seven, leaving backs to run free and scoop up targets underneath which is perfect for Ekeler who had a stupid 16 targets in week 12. We thought Herbert was locking in on Keenan Allen, but it seems he wants to lock in on Ekeler even more so.
I don’t give a flying fuck is Taylor is back or not, although it looks like he will be. Taylor looked like he was going to take over the bulk of the backfield duties when he amassed over 20 carries two weeks ago and then caught COVID. This week, the Colts play the Texans, AKA the team who can’t stop running backs. Hines is still the guy to get catches out of the backfield and the Colts seem to love giving him the opportunities when they get down in the RedZone. His last three games, with Taylor or not, he’s averaged 15 touches per game, and against this Texan’s defence, that could easily be a 20-point game.
I have Davis in the Gridiron Hub fantasy league and I’m sceptical every week but even against the Ravens and Colts he’s put up good numbers, averaging 13 points in these games. He’s no A.J. Brown but that’s why he gets the $2,500 haircut from his teammates price. Now he comes against a much easier matchup versus the Browns without Denzel Ward. Tannehill has been hot as of late and as long as Derrick Henry doesn’t blow this game out of the water early, he should be finding Davis open down the field more often than not. This is Davis’ contract year after his fifth-year option was declined so he wants to show what he can do.
DeVante Parker was $5,900 last week when I tipped him and he had an excellent week against the Jets with Fitzpatrick under centre. Now I’m tipping Woods at that same price point and I’ve already said I like his QB for this game. Kupp didn’t seem to exist last week against the 49ers while Woods scooped up 12 targets. He’s had 27 targets the last two games and averaged 21.6 points the past month. This is volume I must get behind and the Cardinals defence will allow Woods to rack up yards all day long.
Had the Broncos had a QB last week, I fully believe my cheap as chips pick KJ Hamler would have balled out, but we move. This is the second time of the year that I’m tipping Perriman and it didn’t go well early in the season. But this time, I believe. He had 8 targets against Miami and has averaged just over 6 targets his past three games. I don’t even need to talk about his 30-point outing against the Patriots to get excited about Perriman and his price of $3,900 because he’s had four out of seven games with double-digit points. The 30-point game just confirms how much upside Perriman has in an excellent matchup versus the Raiders who we won’t mention much out of pity for last week’s performance.
Last week the 31st ranked defence against tight ends, the Bengals, helped Evan Engram break out of his slump to the tune of 20.9 points. Gesicki has been far from a slump for much of this season and he put up a very good 11.5 points a week ago. Now he comes in to face these same Bengals and although it’s uncertain at this point who will be throwing to him, I don’t particularly care whether it’s Fitz or Tua. The Dolphins do have two other fantasy relevant tight end options both at $2,500 but I’m willing to take the punt, like I did with Trey Burton last week, that Gesicki takes the lions share of the targets, even if Tua is back starting.
Tonyan has been a surprise all season, and having already tipped Aaron Rodgers I have to tip his main man at tight end. In the last fortnight he’s hauled in all his 10 targets and scored a 2 TDs for an average of 16 points. I can’t not tip him with all that momentum against the Eagles who aren’t much better than the Bengals as the 25th worst team defending tight ends. Lazard has helped to open up this offence a little more and Tonyan seems to have benefitted from his presence.
The Falcons came out of nowhere to score an insane 28 points last week against the Raiders. Now you might look to the content two weeks ago against this same team and cringe at that 5 points they managed. But if I’m paying $2,400 and they manage 5 points, I’m not going to frown at that. This time they are playing the Saints at home, and the Falcons D has averaged 50% more points at home so add that to the 5 points they had 2 weeks ago and you likely have a top-12 D with 8 points for $2,400. Raheem Morris is making his team play hard in a bid to win the head coaching role permanently.