James’ DFS Tips – NFL Week 12 by James Platt
JAMES’ JUGGERNAUT DRAFT KINGS LINEUP Week 12
My Tips This Week
You probably don’t need me to tell you that Herbert is must-start every week but this will be my one QB of the season that costs more than $7,000, so allow it. Now that Burrow is out for the year, Herbert is pretty much a lock for the OROY award, despite his awful haircut. He hasn’t quite put up the absurd stats that other young QBs, Mahomes and Jackson did, but he is impressive in his rookie year. He was an obvious smash play against the worst team in the NFL last week and he comes up against the Bills defence that only has name-brand defenders and no real good stats to show for it. Herbert is 7th out of all fantasy QBs and he could jump into the top-5 by seasons end.
Mayfield has fallen off a cliff big time in the last weeks, averaging a dismal 7 points per game, so it’s a shocker that they’ve won two of their last three. This is partly down to the disgusting weather that we’ve seen week-after-week in Cleveland and hopefully he can shake it off this week in a plus matchup. Last week the Steelers started slow, but managed to put up the points eventually as the Jags were without their top two corners, which should be a similar theme in week 12. Even with their top two corners, the Jags shouldn’t be able to contain the Browns weapons and Mayfield should have more than enough time to throw downfield.
Now this one comes with a disclaimer. Gurley is struggling with a knee issue and we all know about his knee issues. It’s unclear if it’s related to his previous injuries and at the time of writing it looks like he still has a good chance of playing but if he doesn’t I fully endorse slotting in his backup Brian Hill for $4,000. If he does play he’s coming off a week where he didn’t have many opportunities but still ran hard against the toughest running matchup in the NFL. Like with Mike Davis in week 11, he comes from a hard game, to a very easy game against the Vegas Raiders. Matt Ryan will also be looking for a bounce back game but he’s been struggling of late so should pass it off to Gurley frequently.
After the first week back with Chubb, Hunt didn’t cross the 10-point mark and his price dropped to the sexy price of just $5,600. He would have had an extremely poor game if he didn’t score the TD but he almost had a 2nd that was only called back on penalty. For whatever reason, the Browns prefer to slam Hunt into the endzone when they get down there and Hunt actually has better stats when Chubb is playing. In a game against the awful Jags run defence. So with Chubb in there it’s a nice way of bringing Hunt’s price down when he should still get you to double-digit points!
I find it funny that it took a Drew Brees injury and Taysom Hill coming in to look like he did before his injury. He’s gotten better each week since coming back in week 9 and last week he scored in the range we’d expect him to. But maybe it’s because he’s still not proven himself or maybe DraftKings still aren’t sure on Taysom Hill, whatever it is, they haven’t upped his cost and this is a very nice price tag against a middling Denver pass defence. Hill targeted Thomas 12 times and he is a better passer than probably most of us expected. The Falcons had the unenviable task of trying to workout what the Saints were going to try with Hill under centre but he just ate them up. Denver is far from a good defence and Thomas is just increasing his target share week-after-week, with Hill still a work in progress he’ll keep going back to his No.1.
Unsurprisingly, Tua loves DeVante Parker. The past three weeks he’s had an average of 8 targets and 12 points, with 18 points in week 11. Jakeem Grant is a decent option but he’s really just a flash in the pan and doesn’t draw many targets, Gesicki is a fine tight end but he’s boom or bust. Parker has dropped to $5,900, a No.1 receiver with a good QB and an excellent matchup against the Jets. While Tua may have been benched a week ago this can be the bounce back game of dreams for the rookie.
Our cheap pick Jaelen Reagor for $4,300 in week 11 didn’t do awfully despite the Eagles offence floundering, he still managed 9 points which for that price is still okay value. This week we’re going extra cheap again with the Denver Broncos KJ Hamler. He’s averaged 9 targets per game the last 3 weeks and got into the double digits in fantasy points two out of the last four games. This could blow up in my face because Drew Lock isn’t the most stable QB, although he usually makes up for it in the second half. Against the Saints he could end up spending more time on the ground than upright but I expect the D to focus on the Broncos other weapons, leaving Hamler to burn one of the
Every time I’ve tipped Engram in the past he hasn’t done a lot. He hasn’t done a lot this season either, but that can be said for many tight ends in 2020. If you want to go for Kelce or Waller because they are back on the slate I can completely understand that. Engram is averaging a pathetic 35 yards per game but I’m hoping that the Bengals, who will be reeling from losing their first-round pick (and hopefully be spending more time on defence because their offence will be abysmal) will keep up their 31st ranked defence against tight ends. Engram has all the tools and the speed to put up huge stats but he’s topped 15 points just once in 2020. His target share has seen an uptick recently but we are yet to see the positive regression, I think this is the week where the barrel bursts and the potential seeps out.
Burton has been more stable than a lot of options at tight end this season despite being the 3rd tight end on the Colts depth chart. He’s getting involved more consistently and they love to put him in the end zone and use him in goal line situations. The Titans are almost as bad as the Bengals in terms of defending tight ends so one of the Colts tight ends should be able to score a TD, we’re just taking a $3,200 punt that tight end is named Trey Burton.
The Browns surprisingly led the week with a huge 22 points last week against the Eagles but I love them again this week. It’s no surprise why, Mike Glennon will be getting the start for the Jags. Myles Garrett may be out again but Olivier Vernon has come alive and then the Browns just have to cover the loss of Denzel Ward. With Glennon at QB it allows for the loss of Ward to mean a lot less and he might just throw up a pass that allows for a pick-6.