James’ DFS Tips – NFL Week 4 by James Platt
Wow, what a week! I think it’s time everyone changes to their backup QB after week 3. I hit on some absolute dimes last Sunday and we’re going to do it again this week and win some big money for a second week in a row. What do you know I kept my promise of not picking any of the Dolphins opponents? Let’s hope my receivers don’t let me down this week! Here we go!
My Tips This Week
It’s our god, our hero, Gardner Minshew. I was upset he was playing on Thursday last week because we only pick players from the main Sunday slate of games. He is a meme lord, everyday man and could be the saviour the Jags need. Big dick Nick might not get his job back if Minshew continues to ball out like he is doing with a less than ideal support cast. But he’s making it work and when targeting second year receiver D.J. Chark, he has a perfect passer rating. Against the Broncos, Chark will likely draw Chris Harris in coverage. Minshew would be wise to shy away from that matchup and go after Isaac Yiadom who will likely be tasked with Dede Westbrook who had 9 targets last Thursday night.
But who knows? Minshew came out of nowhere and has won the hearts of millions. He’s not known to fear anything and has seemed unfazed with becoming an NFL starting QB. If you pick him up for $5,200 then you’re giving yourself that little extra money to get a great player in the flex. The Broncos pass rush has also looked pedestrian this year so I would fade that D hard.
If I wasn’t one of the only people to pick him last week then you could all berate me for just jumping on the bandwagon. But, in week three I put my neck on the line and picked him, stacked him with Greg Olsen and reaped the rewards. The Texans secondary has no idea what is about to throw the ball right over their heads. Kyle Allen is going to make those defensive backs weep after throwing for four touchdowns in his season debut. They are giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to QBs so far and that will continue into week four.
Just like Gardner Minshew, he is the low price of $5,200, a steep increase from his price of $4,000 when I tipped him to you guys a week ago. When talking about quarterbacks they generally have the most success when they get the ball out quickly, as this eliminates the defensive line. However, when the snap to pass time was greater than 2.5 seconds, Allen was 12 of 14 with three touchdowns. You might think, well the Cardinals pass rush is a bit crap and the Texans have JJ Watt. The Texans are currently allowing that amount of time on 56% of drop backs. People want to write off last week as a fluke. I believe Kyle Allen is the second coming of Christ.
David Johnson was touted to have a resurgent season and push for the 2,000 rushing and receiving goal. Kingsbury’s offense has been far from revolutionary as I predicted in August and it’s this weird mix of old and new that is struggling to produce early touchdowns and leads to Murray needing to play hero. This is not an ideal scenario for a young QB or David Johnson. Just like my second pick this week, the strange thing is that the Cardinals aren’t abusing Johnson’s insane receiving ability. Apparently, they’d rather feed a resurgent Larry Fitzgerald.
David Johnson is still running over 30 routes a game, which is higher than any back in the league, so I feel like it must pay off at some point with some heavy volume. The Seattle defence is struggling but they only allow 3.7 yards per carry, so it won’t be a heavy day on the ground, that’s why I expect him to be worth the $6,400 through the air against a leaky secondary.
He was the only first round running back in this past draft, but he proved through the first two weeks that it wasn’t a bad selection at all. However, facing a stout Vikings defence last week has pushed his price down $200. It’s Josh Jacobs. The strange thing about Jacobs is his usage in the passing game. At Alabama he was one of the most dangerous weapons coming out of the backfield, yet through three weeks he’s been targeted just three times and had one catch.
Finally, Gruden has come out saying they need to get him more involved in the passing game, so I think we’ll see a few grabs from him on Sunday. Considering the Raiders offense has been anaemic the last two games they need to lean on their young star back a lot more. The Colts have a very mediocre defence and Jacobs should be able to find space to run with an improved offensive line. If he produces close to what he did in the first two weeks you should be very happy with him for the price of $5,100.
This is one you’re going to have to play close attention to, all the way until 6pm on Sunday. TY Hilton is having issues with his quad and he wants to play, but ultimately it comes down to the coach’s decision. The latest reports say that he’s doing better but it’s still a game day decision at the time of writing (Friday morning.) Top receivers are having a ball against the Raiders two corners Conley and Worley who are allowing over 20 yards per catch. Hilton is known as a deep threat and at $6,400 he could have a couple go straight over the heads of the Raiders D.
Hilton hasn’t disappointed and though he isn’t having the kind of season he could have if Andrew Luck was throwing him the ball, he’s still one of the premier receivers in the NFL. Jacoby Brissett shouldn’t have to worry too much about the Raiders pass rush as his offensive line should keep him clean most of the day. So, who do you go for if Hilton is out? I suggest Parris Campbell, he’s only $4,800 and his role is slowly growing week to week. It’s the perfect defence for a breakout game. Maybe also look at Eric Ebron for your tight end spot.
Though his route tree might not be the most varied in the league, his big play potential is undeniable. Questions about how you could use him and how effective he could be at his size sent DK Metcalf sliding down draft boards to the Seattle Seahawks. He might not be very consistent with catching the ball but that’s what will happen when most of your targets come on deep bombs, it’s also the reason why he’s still only $4,800. He’s proven he can box out defenders and manipulate his body to make some crazy plays.
We’re picking on the Cardinals again this week and after letting up four touchdowns to Kyle Allen, Russel Wilson must be salivating to throw it up to his receivers. Chris Carson has had fumbling issues and Penney has had a few minor injuries. This has resulted in career high passing opportunities for Wilson and an unprecedented number of targets to go around. I think this is the week that Metcalf can put it together against the sloppy Arizona secondary and haul in multiple long catches.
I have another cheap receiver here at $4,700 but he’s a little bit riskier. Phillip Dorsett re-signed with the Patriots on a one-year, $3 million deal and has proved himself to be worth a lot more than that. Whenever you decide to pick up a Patriots receiver, another one has huge game, it’s just how their offense is built. You can’t rely on any player to have consistently amazing performances because their offensive philosophy changes with each opponent.
However, this week I’m more confident that he will have a good game because Edelman should be playing a reduced number of snaps, thanks to a rib contusion suffered last week. Dorsett also had a great game last week with two touchdowns and I think Brady is starting to key in on him a lot more. If you can get any production out of him for his price, then you’ve gained a lot of flexibility and have a great shot at some prize money. But it wouldn’t surprise me if Dorsett had 1 catch and Josh Gordon had 10 catches for 150 yards. We’ll have to wait and see.
Like I said earlier with DK Metcalf, we’re going to be bullying the Cardinals until they learn how to cover a receiver or tight end in the NFL. They’ve given up 130 yards and a TD to a rookie. Similar numbers to Mark Andrews with the Ravens. Last week Greg Olsen scorched them for two scores. Will Dissly isn’t a household name but he might be after this week’s matchup with the Cards allowing 11 fantasy points more per tight end than any other defence.
If that isn’t attractive enough, Dissly was only seeing about 55% of snaps, splitting them with Nick Vannett. I think Seattle must want him to have a big week for their fantasy team as they decided to ship Vannett off to Pittsburgh leaving even more work for Dissly. At $3,600 he might be the best value tight end at a position where Draft Kings has decided to up everyone’s price.
Now this is one of those picks where you’re going to have to take a leap of faith with me. I’m picking Mike Gesicki of the Dolphins. It’s alright, you can laugh for a few minutes. If you want to hear Tyler’s live reaction to this pick you can listen to the Daft King’s podcast, available on Spotify and iTunes. Right, I know it might be a long shot but imagine the other players you could pick up if you only spend $2,600 on your tight end.
Plus, I think his value his trending up, Josh Rosen threw him the ball three times last week and he caught all three. Yes, it was only for 9 yards. However, the Chargers gave up three touchdowns to tight ends last week and are noticeably vulnerable without Derwin James. I don’t think Rosen played badly at all for the situation he’s been put in and if he can start to find his rhythm then Gesicki could see a ball or two go his way. Please fantasy gods, please!
Obviously if you want to go Chargers or Patriots this week I understand. Chargers playing the Dolphins and the Pats only allowing a field goal so far on the season. I’d like to turn your attention to the Jaguars. For all their talent I don’t think they often perform to the best of their abilities. I believe they will be without top corner Jalen Ramsey this week but against Denver, that shouldn’t matter too much. Flacco enjoys holding onto the ball far too much and against that defensive line it’s a recipe for a lot of hits, maybe a few poor decisions. For $3,700 you can pick them up.
If you’re looking for a slightly cheaper option then I suggest you go for the Ravens. The Browns haven’t looked anything like they were supposed to, and Kitchens looks like he’s in over his head. Mayfield is making poorer decisions and that offensive line is causing problems. The defence of the Ravens is one of the best in the NFL and should give the offense fits all night long. They have playmakers at all levels and should get you a few points in this fun divisional matchup.
QB Case Keenum $4,900 [email protected]: He’s sneakily the 9th fantasy QB and Janoris Jenkins would love to give him a few easy TDs.
RB Marlon Mack $6,100 [email protected]: Chose his back up last week, regretted it. He’s at home and his No. 1 receiver isn’t completely healthy, expect volume.
RB Rex Burkhead $4,400 [email protected]: Michel has disappointed and without Develin as his lead he’ll fail harder, the chunkier Burkhead should get more work.
WR Curtis Samuel $4,600 [email protected]: Kyle Allen is a god, targeted him 7 times last week, facing the old and slow Jonathan Joseph.
WR Terry McLaurin $4,500 [email protected]: Skin’s top receiver, scored a TD every week and like I said before, Jenkins sucks this season.