Tyler’s DFS Tips – NFL Week 4 by Tyler Arthur
My Tips This Week
Bounce back matchup.
Jared Goff has had a pretty inconsistent start to the year, and people aren’t overly excited to play him, but this week he should bounce back strong. Goff plays well at home, and Tampa Bay are a great matchup. The weapons that Los Angeles have at their disposal are phenomenal and Goff isn’t a bad QB, he just struggles on the road and needs to keep it simple and let his playmakers do the hard work. At $6,300, Goff is actually a fairly expensive play, but he is a good contrarian option to try and put up some solid points while going against the grain of everyone else’s picks.
It’s time. Dany Dimes has been born. It’s his world and we’re all just living in it. After putting up QB2 numbers last week, it’s time to start up the Giants’ rookie in another good matchup. Mitch Trubisky just put up numbers on the Redskins, and now Daniel Jones is going to host that same defense, without Saquon. Now, don’t get me wrong, Barkley’s absence actually downgrades Jones’ ability to succeed in terms of the match outcome, but they’re going to throw it all game. While Daniel Jones isn’t an elite QB, he has legitimate fantasy upside already and he only costs $5,300.
Good price, balance of floor and upside.
The Cardinals are a lively team, and they have been using their star running back, while inconsistently in ways that are good for fantasy. Week 2 was a down week, but he was in Baltimore so that doesn’t surprise anyone. In Week 1 and 3, with reasonable defensive matchups, David Johnson has averaged 22.1 points on DraftKings. This week he is facing Seattle at home, and while their linebackers are a strong point of their D, they have been struggling in pass defense this season. DJ should have a chance to make some plays in this game, and he’s only $6,800, making him a nice contrarian RB1 pick this week.
The Dolphins suck, Ekeler doesn’t.
This is the easiest pick on the slate if you’re willing to pay for it. We’ll have the same conversation again at WR, but Ekeler has the best matchup that’s available in fantasy, and he just so happens to be one of the best performing backs in fantasy. The $8,000 price tag is there to scare you off him, but he’s that expensive for a reason. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t score, and his volume is fantastic, particularly in the passing game. If you can get 100 all-purpose yards and then add the point boost from PPR and a Touchdown, that’s all of a sudden 20+ fantasy points and the ceiling is higher than that.
Great value, underrated matchup.
I thought I’d give you an extra one because Ekeler was too obvious.
I don’t know why, but Kerryon Johnson is only $5,400 on DK, in a matchup against Kansas City. I can understand why the price hasn’t gone up, I guess, but the fact that it’s actually gone down is crazy to me. He’s got a solid volume, averaging 16 carries and a couple of receptions sprinkled in each week. I think that against the Chiefs, he could get a little bit more involved in the passing game, and hopefully pick up a touchdown or two. If the Ravens are anything to go by, you’re going to have to pass the ball, but then you can still have success when you get down in the red zone and running backs can have big days if they find the endzone more than once. Again, he’s a player who won’t be overly popular.
You have probably got the point by now. I can’t not mention Keenan Allen this week. Not only does he have the best matchup you could imagine, he still doesn’t have Hunter Henry, and he will continue to get god-tier volume. Allen is averaging 16 targets now that Hunter Henry is gone (week 2 and 3), and he isn’t getting meaningless ones either, he’s averaged more than 12 yards per reception in every game this year, and when the reception total is reliably 8+ each week that is phenomenal. Allen costs less than Ekeler, at $7,600, but he has just as much of a chance of scoring and could break some big plays against this defense in Miami. If you’re feeling risky you could also go for Mike Williams, who’s only $4,800 but the volume is less consistent.
Very reasonable price, good matchup.
Fantasy owners with Tyler Lockett had a scary week to start the season, when he only had one single reception (on two targets) – yes, he scored a 44-yard TD on that reception, but it was still scary. That week is now firmly behind us. In week 2 and 3 he brought in 10-12 and 11-14 respectively. This volume is what we were all hoping for coming into the season, high volume is something that a player like Lockett can do serious damage with. This past week, against the Saints, Russell Wilson threw a career-high 50 pass attempts, and I hope that this is something we can expect to repeat every once in a while. Lockett put up 35.4 fantasy points and is set to go to work against a mediocre Arizona defense on Sunday. For $6,300 he has huge upside and (apart from week 1) great volume.
Perfect matchup, Saquon gone.
A moment of silence for Saquon Barkley please.
The superstar sophomore running back of the New York Giants is gone, but we are fantasy players and we have to adapt. This week I really like Sterling Shepherd, with an incredible matchup against the Washington ‘even Trubisky put up numbers’ Redskins defense. Daniel Jones looked more than competent, and Shepherd had himself a big day, with a 30-point day at Tampa Bay, in Danny Dimes’ debut. I expect more of the same this week, and at just $5,800 the value is impossible to ignore. I actually like the stack, and think that could be a really nice starting point this week. I might even consider a three-way stack…
Did somebody say three-way stack?
This is going to go either really well or really badly. I will pre-warn you, this will be an insanely popular pick this week. 1. Both George Kittle and Zach Ertz are not on this slate. 2. Engram is dominating this year. With two separate weeks of over 26 fantasy points, Evan Engram is literally the best TE in fantasy football right now, and he is only $5,700 (compared to Kelce’s $7,200). As I described before, the matchup for the Giants is perfect, and I am genuinely going to have a lineup on DK this week which stacks Jones, Shepherd and Engram together. Who’d have thought.
Like I said before, it’s awful that Saquon got injured – but now it’s time for the passing game to step up, and I think that this is the best week in their entire schedule that it could have happened.
Matchups are everything in DFS.
If you don’t play fantasy that much, my constant mention of matchups may be confusing. The simple fact is that some teams are predictably bad against a certain position or create a certain game-script. The Dolphins are a good matchup for every position, the Chiefs are a good matchup for receivers etc. Well the Arizona Cardinals absolutely suck against tight ends. In the last two weeks, Will Dissly of the Seattle Seahawks has been putting up serious numbers, especially for his price. Now, he travels to the land of the TE, and I can see him continuing the great production against the Cardinals defense. At $3,600 he is by far my favourite budget play [I’m really upset that the DK price now fully reflects how amazing Darren Waller is] of the week.
As I do every week, I’ll acknowledge that the best defensive play is the one against Miami, this week it’s the Los Angeles Chargers, and they’re actually fairly affordable at $3,800 – not much for a team traveling to the Dolphins. The team I’m rolling out this week, however, is the Baltimore Ravens. Baker Mayfield has looked very shaky this season, so far, and the Baltimore D looks legit. Baker holds onto the ball too long, and his offensive line is absolutely atrocious. I think that if the Ravens can stop Nick Chubb having too much in the way of yardage, Baker Mayfield could find himself behind the eight ball and under pressure to make difficult throws into tough coverage. If he doesn’t throw an interception on the road this week, I’d be surprised.
QB – Russell Wilson @ Arizona – $6,100
RB – Josh Jacobs @ Indianapolis – $5,100
RB – Justin Jackson @ Miami – $4,100
WR – Curtis Samuel @ Houston – $4,600
WR – Kenny Golladay vs Kansas City – $5,900
TE – Darren Waller @ Indianapolis – $5,200