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NFL Week 15 – Picks Review Part 2

Holy crap!! Now that is how a Thursday night game is supposed to happen. Take note Tennessee and Jacksonville, 60 minutes of inept passing, terrible tackling and overall suboptimal play is not fitting for a Primetime game. I don’t want to go too into it as that’s what Tuesday’s are for, but I will say there was some questionable defence and refereeing at the end of that game. But enough about that, back to the schedule.

We all know Jacksonville got completely blown out last week, but so did another team. That other team? It’s who they’re playing this week and that blowout? It happened without Odell and though Jacksonville doesn’t have Eli, Barkley, Engram or Shepherd. They have Kessler, Fournette, No one of note and like 3 below average Wideouts, this should still be enough to handle the Washington defence. The main key here is Fournette on offence and the fact that Washington is starting Josh Johnson behind an injury-riddled offensive line. Combine all of those factors, and yeah I can see why we have an 81% favourite in the Jaguars.

Only one true overwhelming favourite remains, and that’s New England at 74% over the Steelers. How did we come to this? Well, it’s because Pitt has slumped to a 3 game losing streak to Broncos the Chargers and the Raiders, all the while they’ve struggled on both sides of the ball. The Pats had a shock loss on a freak play in a Stadiums they’ve struggled to win at over the recent years. This game is on the road for them, and Ben plays a lot better at home, just look at those losses, the close one came at home to a team that just went into KC and got a win. I do think New England wins, I just think 74/26% is quite steep.

Another week, another team undervalued for beating a team in the previous week that just beat their opponents from this week recently. Did you follow that? I’ll break it down, 66% of you don’t care that Miami just beat New England, who beat Minnesota the week before that. The shocking surprise for this is the sacking of the OC for the Vikings at the beginning of the week. That to me points to Dalvin Cook getting the ball over 20 times this week, and Miami can’t stop running backs so it makes sense. Kenyan Drake touches the ball 8 times a game approx and is easily the most talented player on this Miami offence, mind-boggling.

This one is interesting, here at GH Picks you guys have the Lions as a 64% favourite. The bookies, they have the Bills as the favourite and I’m almost inclined to agree. I picked the Lions in Monday’s write-up but the more film I watch, the less I think they’ll win. Golladay will end up with Tre’davious White, one of the best emerging Cornerbacks in the game and Detroit has nothing else to work with on offence. Plus, against this defence, I could easily see Allen running for another 100 yards. I know I can’t change my pick actually, but verbally I am. I think Buffalo wins this.

4 games left, and the highest difference is in the Colts vs Dallas matchup. With you lot having Dallas as the 57% favourites. Dallas has arguably the best Linebacking core in the league and the rest of the defence is playing at an extremely high level. On the other side of the ball, Zeke is the 3rd best Running back in the league this season behind Barkley and Gurley and Cooper is proving why the Raiders picked him so high in the draft. For Indy, Luck is comeback player of the year, no doubt about that, and if he can keep the INT’s down and get Indy into the Playoffs, a dark horse for MVP. The main question is can they stop Dallas, I don’t know, but I know they have the better offence so might be able to outscore them.

I’m going to come straight out and say it, the Giants are favourites according to your picks. 55% of you to be exact. It’s interesting, because both New York and Tennesse blew out their opponents last week, opponents who happen to be playing each other too this week. I don’t expect another 200+ game from Henry this week, but I do expect Barkley to thrive where Fournette stumbled. The Giants O-Line is still bad, but I’m overly overwhelmed by the Titans D-Line, which could give Eli the time he needs to work through the air. To win Mariota needs to expose the gap left by Collins going on IR, Sanchez and Johnson couldn’t, but Mariota might. This game could go 1 of 2 ways, under 20 points total, or over 35. Only time will tell.

Jesus Christ, if 6 weeks ago you’d said that Cincy would only be just favourited in the percentages by 6% (53/47) over the Raiders I would have laughed in your face. But, I wouldn’t have known that Dalton and Green had been replaced by Driskel and Ross. Couple that with the fact that the Bengals have a worse defence recently than Tampa and Atlanta, yeah I can see it now. I’m of the firm belief Carr is playing for his Raiders future at this point, he’s still firmly under contract so they won’t cut him, but they’ve already shown their willingness to trade every player under the sun, even it’s to their detriment. I want to say the best thing to do, is get into a hole early with a couple of picks and Fitzmagic your way to a late comeback loss barely, garbage time stats save careers. Also, never underestimate Marvin Lewis’ ability to emulate Jeff Fisher and go 7-9 or 8-8, I picked Oakland, but you never know.

The “Bakerfield” express hype train is in full effect and not stopping at this station. The Browns have looked like an entirely new team since Jackson left (which is funny because so have the Bengals since he joined…) But in all honesty I can see why they’re favoured, no one outside of Lindsay in this offence is very good. Sutton could be, but he’s got years to grow and is a raw talent, the losses of Sanders and Thomas are deeply felt, not as deeply felt as having Keenum under centre though. For Cleveland it’s all about keeping Baker safe, no tandem has more Sacks than Chubb and Miller, if they can limit their impact, they can win and that’s why they’re 51% favourites. That may not sound like much, but it’s the Browns, being favourites at all is huge.

There they are, that’s the other 8 matchups for this week’s games. Remember, 2 games outside of the regular slots, Texans vs Jets 9:30 pm GMT on Saturday and Browns vs Broncos 1:20 am GMT on Sunday. That’s all from me this week, best of luck and I will catch you guys on Monday.

Ciao for now.

Oz

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