NFL Week 15 – Picks Review Part 1

Ahhh Winter time, the days get shorter, the nights darker, and the working hours longer. Now, this last one is what translates in having to split what used to be a one night process into a 2-night deal. The other factor to that is the obvious absence of bye weeks, which is a great thing as it translates to more football which is almost never a bad thing. The end of the regular season also means something else, fantasy playoffs, namely semifinals (unless you’re a psycho and play in week 17). Now, some of you might be there, some might not. Congrats to those of you who made it, and even more so to any of you that managed to claw it back after starting at a deficit (0-3 which translated to 3-5 halfway through the season.) I scraped the 5 seed with a super team, Luck, McCaffrey, Gordon, Fournette, Theilen, Hopkins. I just got unlucky. but I’m there and set to probably lose, so we won’t focus on that and will instead look at the real football games. It’s the same format as last week, the Thursday night game and then the 7 biggest percentage splits, let’s go!

Yeah, I can’t say I’m too surprised by this split of 66/34% in favour of the Chiefs. Rivers has been awful at Arrowhead over the last 4 games he’s played there to the tune of 2 TDs and 6 INT’s. Now factor in the win from KC in week 1, the rosters were slightly different, Hunt and Gordon both played (the latter is a game-time decision this time around) Bosa missed it, but Perryman played, Hill wasn’t banged up and Ware didn’t matter. This game could truly go either way to me, but I think people are remembering the Chiefs from the start of the year to make them decent favourites, not the team that struggled to beat the Raiders and the Ravens.
(Update – Gordon has just been ruled out)

Darnold has had his ups and downs this year, his first NFL regular season pass ended up a pick 6, but they absolutely belted the Lions that week, he’s struggled to look efficient and comfortable under centre, but I’d say that probably stems more from the fact he plays for the Jets… On the other side, Watson hasn’t looked remotely close to what we saw Pre ACL injury last season, granted Will Fuller is a massive part of that, But still, he’s been a shell of what we know he could be. Luckily enough for him, he has one of the top defences in the league, a viable run game and a top 5 receiver to throw too. All of those point to one thing… a 100/0% split for the Texans.

Another 100/0% split this makes our total 2 for the week and this one is a GH Picks first I believe. (Probably is seeing as we’re not even 6 months old) But, it involves our defending Super Bowl champ Eagles, not one person is giving them a chance in their game this week against the Rams. Now, I could hazard a guess as to why last week’s loss to the Bears has no impact on this Week’s picks. Probably, because the Eagles have no defence at all, and Carson Wentz isn’t playing having been diagnosed with a fractured vertebra in his back, time to shine Folesy, time to shine.

I’m going out on a limb here and guessing that beating the Broncos earns you a few “mad props” from the community. Because San Fran got pasted by Seattle in week 13, since then the Seahawks have gone and beaten the Vikings comfortably with a strong run game and smash mouth running the football. See, the thing is, in that Week 13 game, the Seahawks were 100% favourites. Now, since beating the Vikings, they’re only 96% favourites which leads me to believe that the win over Denver managed to sway just a couple of you, unfortunate for you as there’s no chance San Fran wins this game, but still. Admirable.

Our last game with an over 90% favourite involves our other NFC frontrunner New Orleans over Carolina. I’m not going to lie, I actually expected this one to have 100% favouritism towards the Saints instead of the actual 91% we have. Carolina is a dumpster fire with the main bright spot in a lost second half of the season being Christian McCaffrey who’s scored 12 TD’s since Week 7. Unfortunately, during this emergence, the rest of the team has regressed heavily. I picked a get right game from Brees and the Saints last week against the Bucs but it never came, I think it definitely comes against the most recent team to lose to those Bucs, this week.

Hot damn Hotlanta, look at you guys. 89% favourites over the Cardinals. Pity that seems like a pretty hollow accolade, something akin to being the Principal of a homeschool, the Governor of Alaska, or winning a vote of no confidence… No more politics, I swear. So yeah, you guys have the Falcons as heavy favourites over Arizona even though they’ve only won one more game than their opponent. I think we could see a fair few points scored should Johnson actually just get force fed the ball. On the other side, Tevin Coleman needs a great game desperately if he wants any chance of a decent free agent deal at the end of the year.

One more 89% favourite this week and it’s the team that no one expected too much from this season. Yeah, we knew they had a great defence and that bringing in Matt Nagy would bring about positive changes. I just don’t think anyone expected it this quickly or this profound. Yep, I’m talking about the Bears, eager to avenge that Week 1 loss everyone talked about (the last time this season Rodgers was truly great) Rodgers looked decent last week but all eyes will be on Adams and Jones, if they get suffocated, it will be a very long night at Soldier Field for the Cheeseheads.

Now I get to end tonight’s summary on a high, an 87% high to be exact. That’s right, the Ravens are 87% favourites over the Bucs according to our Picksters, last time I checked the less reliable Vegas bookies had them also as 8.5 point favourites at home. Jackson gets the start again in another great matchup, one that will probably ultimately decide Baltimore’s playoff aspirations and whether we see Flacco start again this year. For Tampa, they have to prove that they truly have gotten better on defence since firing Mike Smith. The offence was never the main problem as we saw them score in bunches, but that doesn’t mean to expect them to put up 30 on this Baltimore D. I can’t wait for this game, forfeit or no.

There they are, the first 8 games summarised out with us taking a look at the other 8 tomorrow night. I hope you all got your picks in for this week and are looking forward to a great weekend of football starting tonight with the Chiefs v Chargers, then the Texans and the Jets on Saturday. So I’ll catch you guys tomorrow night to go over the much closer splits and I can’t wait, we’ve got 3 games in the 55% or under category.

Ciao for now

Oz.

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