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NFL Week 14 – Picks Review

That’s right folks, you have indeed read that title correctly, this is part 1, part two will be released tomorrow. Tonight we’ll take a look at the Thursday night snorefest and the 7 highest percentage picks, with tomorrow night being when we take a look at the other 8 closer matchups. “But Oz!” Clamour the masses, “we want all the games tonight, why make us wait?” Firstly, there are no masses, there’s like you reading this, and my mum, that’s it. Secondly, it’s because unfortunately, as we move closer to Xmas real life takes over and I don’t find myself with as much time on a Thursday night for War and Peace (Thanks for that Steve, prick). So without further ado, let’s take a look and what’s on the slate starting with Thursday night.

Poor Jacksonville, no one really cares that you beat the Colts last week and that the Colts thrashed the Titans in the weeks just before that game. Last time these two faced we had a field goal kicking comp en route to a 9-6 Titans victory. I’m hoping that the additions of Fournette and Mariota to the mix amp it up a bit. This is the time we see if the Jacksonville defence has turned the corner to get back to where they were, or if last week was just a fluke. Unfortunately for them, 76% think probably the latter. I mean, having Cody Kessler leading your offence doesn’t exactly help inspire confidence either.

It looks like the Cincy spiral is still in full effect, with no one giving them a chance, Three AFC North teams play 3 AFC West teams this week, and the closest pick margin is 96%/4%. This is one of two fully unanimous games picked this week and after pulling out a gutsy/lucky last play field goal win over the Steelers, everyone and their dog is in the Chargers corner. Cincy has only one weapon on Offence and on average give up the most points per game, that’s not who you want going up against the 6th best scoring Offence and the 7th best scoring Defence. This should be a whitewash, and your 100% pick rate confirms you all think the same.

The other fully 100%/0% game is like I mentioned another AFC West vs AFC North matchup, except this time you all favour the North as Pittsburgh vs the Raiders. Oakland kept up with KC last week, but the Chiefs allow the 6th most points allowed and the 2nd most yards (behind the Bengals). The Steelers have a worse offence than KC (not up for debate with no Conner) but their defence is much better, so I expect lower total points in the game, but a larger winning margin. Oakland made their mistake by beating Arizona and with San Fran sucking immensely, they’re not going to make the same mistake again and jeopardise that #1 draft chance.

Right now, looking at the picked split 96%/4% Dolphins fans are looking at each other with the Jim Carey face from Dumb and Dumber all saying the same thing… “So there’s a chance?” The answer is yes, an infinitesimal one. Brady in his career at Miami is 7-9. That’s right, he has a losing record when playing on the road in Miami, in fact, he’s lost 4 of his last 5 on the Road against the Dolphins, so yeah they could win. Now I’m of the firm belief that they won’t because the Dolphins well and truly suck, but there’s still a chance.

Sticking with my movie themes, this game is Pippen and Gandalf standing on the walls of Minas Tirith, and Pippen looks at him and asks, “Was there ever much hope Gandalf?” To which Gandalf responds. “There was never much hope, just a fools hope.” And that is exactly how I feel as a Ravens fan this week, I mean we need an unnumberable amount of things to go right for us to beat the Chiefs this weekend. Which is probably why only 4% of you guys picked them to win, but on the off chance the Ravens Defence turns into their counterparts from 2000, I’m seeing rough times ahead at Arrowhead Stadium.

This one is surprising, a 92%/8% split for two Division leaders, the disrespect to the Bears is real. Look salty NFC North non-Bears fans, they are the best team in the Division, deal with it. Now, with that said, I too think the Rams win this game but I at least had doubts. Especially now I can see that Trubisky is in line to play. So I’ll look on the positive side, and assume a lot of votes came in when people thought it was Chase Daniel playing. Or maybe, they think if the Giants can score 30 and win in overtime, the Rams can score 40 and win comfortably, there’s always that possibility.

Well, if you don’t follow football you may not have heard, injuries strike again, and Denver has lost their second-best offensive weapon to a torn Achilles. Yep, Emmanuel Sanders is gone for the year and that thrusts Courtland Sutton into the limelight fully. Now, this doesn’t mean much for this matchup to be honest. This game will be a heavy dose of Run and Defence from the Broncos and the Niners won’t really factor in, that’s my opinion anyway. If not sure on the specifics of your guy’s, but I can see that it’s the same end result with a 92%/8% split displayed.

The last game we look at tonight takes us out of the 90th percentile barely, it comes with an 88%/12% split. On Monday I went on a bit of a rant using the words, I Don’t Care. So I gather you can guess what the game is, yep Saints vs Bucs. Now I rattled off a whole bunch of reasons why the Bucs could win and just shot them down. But the fact of the matter is, this should be a bounce-back game for New Orleans, yes they’re on the road and outdoors, but they’re easily a good enough team that it won’t matter and they’ll get back to their winning ways. Plus, they still owe the Buccs payback for Week 1.

That is part one of the Picks review, I will be back tomorrow night to browse briefly over the last 8 games, one of which looks like it could go either way with a 52%/48% split. For those of you staying up, for tonight’s game, you’re braver than I am. I’m just hoping to wake up to 100+ yards and 2TDs from Fournette and a pick 6 or Punt Return TD for Adoree Jackson.

Ciao for now,

Oz

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