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NFL Week 14 – Picks Review Part 2

I have an overwhelming urge every time I start one of these to say that I’m back, which almost always triggers an involuntary urge to attempt to change the words of “Without Me” by Eminem to something even slightly football related. Luckily enough I catch myself before that catastrophe ever hits my keyboard. Today, the urge was stronger than usual, hence why I’m telling you about it. Now, you might be wondering the reason for this tangent, it’s because I don’t want to talk about last nights game where Fournette has left me up the proverbial creek without a paddle, so we’ll save that for Tuesday. That’s enough diverging, let’s jump back into the rest of the games.

Only 2 other games are left with a sweeping majority of over 80%, the first one is the other 2 AFC South team that didn’t play last night. The Texans have won 9 in a row, a win streak that started when they beat the Colts. Now, it would be slightly poetic and maybe symbolic for the Colts to end that streak but there are a few reasons why I think that won’t happen. The first is the fact that since week 7 Lamar Miller leads the league in rushing yards, somehow he’s managed to find his mojo. Another is that Indy has struggled against very good defences, of which Houston is one. I don’t think Luck struggles like he did last week, but I do think the Titans now have an advantage in the Wildcard race and the 84%/14% split reflects that.

The other game in the ’80s also has the same percentage splits and also is a heated division rivalry. We could look at past results and say the Eagles are on the up, but then we’d have to take into account that the Eagles got thrashed by the Saints, those same Saints that lost to the Cowboys last week. I would say that’s one of the factors playing into why the percentage is the way it is. Another would be that Dallas’ offence has gotten much better since they last played due to the Cooper trade, whereas Philly has gotten noticeably worse. I do think Dallas will be the worst Division winner in the playoffs this year, but that doesn’t matter in this game at all.

The split of this size surprised me massively. Like I understand why people would pick Carolina, they are the better team and when you think of the Browns the first thing for me that comes to mind is going 1-31 over two straight years. But based on form for the recent weeks, I think Cleveland has been the better team. Carolina has dropped games the had no right losing, and Cleveland has won games they probably shouldn’t have, now I know I picked Carolina to win this and I do think they will. But it’ll be close, and I don’t know if a 76%/24% split reflects that. If you’re a Nick Chubb fantasy owner, fire him up this week. Trust me.

I saw a stat the other day about the Patriots dominance of the AFC East and got into a bit of a debate about, now I get that Bill and Brady have a lot to do with it, There’s a reason they’re always contenders, they win when it counts. But, it doesn’t hurt playing in a dumpster fire of a division. I mean Miami always flashes occasionally but never manages to hold it together. Buffalo hasn’t been competitive for like 20 years, and that includes their Playoff berth last year and New York hasn’t done jack all since Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan. No one’s going to complain about getting 4-6 free wins a year. That’s how little I care about this game, my entire write up is essentially about the Pats, and I hate the Pats. Matt Barkley blew these guys outta the water last time they played and he’s not even playing this week. That pretty much says it all there and in my opinion, the 72%/28% split is probably too close.

Come on Eli, you can do it, lead that resurgence, beat Mark Sanchez. my god, what is this? Like 2009? We’re debating Eli vs Mark Sanchez, well I don’t have to as neither of them will be the focal points. For NY it will be Barkley and Beckham and for Washington, it will be Peterson against one of the worst run defences in the league. There’s very little else I can write about this, Washington probably won’t win another game all year and New York might make 6-10 or 7-9 if they’re really lucky. So yeah, the 72%/28% split makes sense to me when you look at it that way. Generally, teams with Playmakers beat teams without most of the time.

Three games left and the first two teams in this game only have 1 less combined win than the two teams in the third game. If you’d told me that Arizona and Detroit only had one less combined win than Atlanta and Green Bay I would have thought that Rosen was looking like Rookie of the year and Detroit was competing for the NFC North. Unfortunately, it’s pretty much the opposite, Detroit is bottom of their division and Rosen looks like the worst of the first 5 Rookie QB’s off the board in the draft. Both teams are weapon depleted and my phone alert has just told me that Kerryon has been ruled out for the game, I think this split should have been closer too, I mean Arizona just beat Green Bay, so a 64%/36% in favour of Detroit seems a little unfair. I guess only time will tell.

I don’t know how to explain Seattle because statistically, they shouldn’t be able to do what they’re doing. They’re an anomaly that should have experienced regression, but they haven’t in fact if anything they’ve gotten more efficient. Minnesota confuses the hell out of me and I’ve said why before, they’re practically identical to the team that made the championship game last year, yet they’re not even close to as good. It makes no sense, Theilen has played a lot better, Diggs about the same, Cooks has played more games and Griffin is now back again, they should be surging but instead, they’re floundering and that’s the main reason I think 56% of you guys have picked Seattle to win.

As I alluded to last night, the final split is almost right down the middle, 52%/48% in favour of Atlanta. Both teams only have 4 wins on the Season and have had players dropping like flys. This game could truly go either way, and both Offences have the potential to explode. I think for me, the perfect game would be Atlanta out to an early 2 score lead that they maintain through 3.5 quarters on the way to a low to mid 30’s score, and then Rodgers slowly closes the gap as they work through the fourth and he gets the ball back down by 4 with about 2 mins on the clock and one timeout. The end result? I dunno, I just want to see that, so we can see if he’s still got it, and wonder what might have been in a couple of those games earlier on in the year.

That is everything from me for this week, if you’re in the fantasy playoffs, best of luck this week I hope your team is doing better than mine is so far. I also hope none of you sat Derrick Henry or started the Jaguars D. I’ll be back on Monday to preview Week 15, so until then.

Ciao for now.

Oz

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