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NFL Week 1 – Betting Tips

Tip 1:

Falcons Money Line @ 2.05

Money line is just that team to win, so here, falcons to beat the eagles

 

Tip 2:

Pittsburgh Steelers -4.0 @ 1.90

A - handicap (-4.0 here) means that we need to Steelers to win by 5 for the bet to win, win by exactly 4 and it’s a refund, win by 3 or less, or lose, and the bet loses.

 

Tip 3:

Bengals +3.0 @ 1.90

A + handicap is the other way round. If the Bengals win, or lose by 2 or less, the bet wins, lose by 3 it’s a refund, lose by 4 or more and it’s a loss

 

Odds accurate at time of tip creation and are subject to change


DraftKings NFL Tips – 2018-19 Week 1

Quarterback

Big Price, High Upside - Philip Rivers

Image Credit: Sporting News

At $6,400, Rivers comes in with a reduced price tag on the big guys, but he has a really juicy matchup this week against the newly weakened Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs gave up an average of 19.9 Fantasy Points to Quarterbacks when they were on the road, and Rivers is the first man of the year to get the pleasure of seeing how much higher that average can go in 2018. I think there is a high chance of Rivers being a top 3 QB this week, with legitimate QB1 upside against this Defense. He is even more attractive if you stack him with Keenan Allen, which is what I'm doing in my lineups. (We'll speak more about that soon).

 

Low Price, Great Matchup - Tyrod Taylor

Image Credit: Sporting News

No matter how you want to pronounce his name, I know how to say the word 'bargain'. At only $5,400, you're saving money to spend elsewhere, which means that if you want to splash out on a couple of higher costing players - this is your guy. I think that the Pittsburgh Steelers are a team I'm going to really target this year when picking QB's for DFS or streaming in my redraft leagues - they will always put up points, but their defense isn't very good, it's a perfect matchup for a safe Quarterback with a rushing floor and great weapons.

Running Back

Big Price, High Upside - Alvin Kamara

Image Credit: Sporting News

With Le'Veon Bell not playing this week, the usual Browns targeting from many fantasy players has to shift elsewhere for a top tier RB, and I think that Tampa Bay are a pretty good team to go after this week. The Buccaneers have a notably bad pass defense, and a below-average run defense too. For $8,500 you can get the best of both worlds and destroy both with Alvin Kamara. When the Saints pass it, Kamara gets high volume, and for the start of this year at least (as they find a new Ingram-less running game), he'll get extra carries too - meaning for the first four weeks he's game-flow proof. If I'm spending big on my favourite RB this week, it's Kamara.

 

Low Price, Not for Long - Jordan Wilkins

Image Credit: USA Today

If you play fantasy football with me you know who Jordan Wilkins is. But not many casual fantasy players do... See how that might be pretty awesome for playing DFS week 1? Wilkins is the talented rookie who I believe will be starting week 1 for the rejuvenated Colts team, with Andrew Luck back under centre. You only have to pay $3,700 for this guy, and he is going to be the starting running back against the Bengals, who were the second-best running back matchup last season. I'd be very, very surprised if his price stays below $4,000 even going in to next week, so start him now and thank me later. I have Wilkins on every single one of my DFS teams this week, even if he doesn’t go crazy, he is by far the most cost-effective addition I can find across the whole of DraftKings for week 1.

Wide Receivers

Big Price, High Floor, Even Higher Upside – Keenan Allen

 

Image Credit: CBS Sport

If you have Philip Rivers, this isn’t even a question… This game between the Chiefs and the Chargers has extremely high scoring potential. Keenan Allen is Rivers’ go to target in the open field, and he is also the 2nd target in the red zone (the first being 38-year-old Antonio Gates who has only been training with the team again for the last few days). The game-flow will go one of two ways, either the Chiefs come out all guns blazing, and it’s a full on shootout, or the Chargers embarrass Mahomes and they have great field position – either way, I expect Keenan Allen to have lots of yards, lots of catches, and there’s plenty of Touchdown upside too – if he performs how he did in the second half of last season, he will be on every winning team in DFS this weekend after dominating the Chiefs’ withered defense.

 

Reasonable Price, High Floor, Touchdown Upside – Chris Hogan

Image Credit: NBC Sport

There is some good value at receiver this week, because before week 1 it’s much harder to see who is going to do well, but that isn’t necessarily the case in New England, in my opinion. Gronk is the number 1 receiving threat, and then there’s Chris Hogan. The later option only costs $6,100, which is 800 less than the Pats’ Tight End. Hogan is a very talented receiver and an underrated red zone threat. If the Texans look anything like they did last time Deshaun Watson was under centre, I’d expect this game to be a good old-fashioned shootout.

 

Low Price, High Upside Flier – Keelan Cole

Image Credit: RotoBaller

For only $3,800 you’re not going to get a top tier player; you need to decide between a floor and a ceiling. At RB, there is a solid floor for cheap in Wilkins, so if you want another discounted player (to save money to splash out elsewhere) you probably need to look for an upside guy. If you want a high upside person for next-to-no cost, Keelan Cole is a good flier to believe in. The talented second-year receiver is my favourite wideout in Jacksonville – he was before Marqise Lee went down anyway – and he is a definite deep threat. For under four thousand dollars you can pick up a potential deep bomb touchdown, with the now-increased floor with Lee no longer there.

Tight End

Reasonable Price, Good Matchup – Delanie Walker

Image Credit: Sporting News

If you want to spend some money on a Tight End but you’re not going to splash out on Gronkowski, you can get the Titans’ veteran Delanie Walker for just $4,900, which is significantly less than a top end price for TE or any position. Walker is a very important part of his offense all the way down the field, and he could see multiple red zone targets in this game, up against the Dolphins – who were the dead last against the Tight End position last season.

Low Price, Good Matchup – Vance McDonald

Image Credit: 247 Sport

This is another player who I have on every single lineup I’ve set this week. Vance McDonald has been afforded an absolutely tiny price tag of just $3,200. That is an absolute steal for the Tight End for a Le’Veon Bell-less Steelers team, against the Cleveland Browns, who – as much as they are the subject of plenty of hype this offseason – are a below-average team at defending the TE position.

Defense

Don’t Get Fancy – Baltimore Ravens

Image Credit: Rant Sports

If you can’t work this out on your own, I wouldn’t spend too much money on DFS just yet. The Buffalo Bills have announced officially that they plan on starting Nathan Peterman at Quarterback this week. If you don’t use the Ravens defense in your Draft Kings lineup, you’re doing it wrong. The only reason you wouldn’t use the Ravens is if you’re absolutely determined to spend more elsewhere and so you need a budget D. The Ravens is admittedly the most expensive Defense this week, at $3,800 – but it’s worth it if you can afford it.

 

Honorable Mentions

Deshaun Watson @ New England – QB - $6,700
Christian McCaffrey vs Dallas – RB - $6,400
Dalvin Cook vs San Francisco – RB - $6,200
James Conner @ Cleveland – RB - $4,500
Michael Thomas vs Tampa Bay – WR - $7,800
Stefon Diggs vs San Francisco – WR - $6,300


My Guys: James’ Fantasy Picks

MY MUST HAVE ROOKIE

Image Credit: ClutchPoints

Calvin Ridley is looking like a stud throughout the preseason. This offense is starting to look Steve Sarkisian proof. Ridley can have a huge rookie debut by feeding off No. 2 corners all season long opposite Julio Jones and in the second year of this offense, Matt Ryan will feel a lot more comfortable and give Ridley more chances. Currently he’s being taken in round 10 and that is a steal.

 

MY #1 STAR PLAYER

Image Credit: USA Today

Alvin Kamara is my star player you must have. He was probably my favourite player to watch as the season went on as the offensive rookie of the year was truly spectacular in his debut season. Ingram is out for 4 games which could lead to a slight increase in touches and his yards per carry last year should get everyone excited for that. Don’t miss out on the most electric young player in the game. He’s usually being taken in the first round as a top 5 running back so you’ll need to strike early.

 

MY BOOM OR BUST WILDCARDS

Image Credit: The Buffalo News

1)  Kelvin Benjamin is the ultimate boom-or-bust projection this season. There is uncertainty at every spot on the Bills offense except for No. 1 receiver where Benjamin resides. Will rookie Josh Allen start and make things hard for the lanky receiver or will he shine and make Benjamin look amazing. Will it matter? The rest of the Bills offense, pending LeSean McCoy, looks shaky at best so defenses could just zone in on Benjamin and make him disappear. Only time will tell but he’s usually taken somewhere after round 8 so could be worth taking a flyer on him.

 

Image Credit: Sporting News

2) Now don’t get me wrong, I loved Lamar Miller when he was in Miami as much as the next guy, but he hasn’t really proved to be worth the contract he got given in Houston. I mean we can only say he’s not being utilised correctly for so many seasons, right? He’s currently slotted in about round 4 which is high for a guy that is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Donta Foreman looked good before being injured last season and when he comes back he could put Miller on the bench. If you like risk, Miller is your guy.

 

MY UNDERVALUED PICKUPS

Image Credit: The Press Democrat

1) Marquise Goodwin is my No. 1 value pick for this season. A former track star, he is forming into a well-rounded receiver with a growing route tree and great chemistry with Jimmy G. His average draft slot is around the 5th round or around the 25th receiver taken so he is an absolute steal, considering Will Fuller and Sammy Watkins are only a few slots behind him. It wouldn’t surprise me if Goodwin had over 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns.

 

Image Credit: The Falcoholic

2) I think this is an insane value pick in round 13. Austin Hooper is going to be a monster this year in that offense for much the same reasons as Calvin Ridley. He’s heading into his third year and has only gotten better the more time he’s had in the league. Look for this young tight end to be in the conversation for the best at the position after Rob Gronkowski, of course.

 

MY #1 QUARTERBACK

Image Credit: USA Today

My favourite quarterback for this season is Matt Stafford, the rocket armed man in Detroit. He has two pro bowl calibre receivers that can both be used as deep threats and he has another promising youngster in Kenny Golladay. He may have a run game and a rough, ready offensive line to support him, so expect Stafford and his new massive contract to come out firing.

 

MY #1 DEFENSE

Image Credit: USA Today

The Raven’s defense last season was an interesting one. It finished 3rd in total defense, 4th against the run, 10th against the pass, 11th in sacks, led the league in takeaways and forced three teams to go without points. That all looks great, but then they go up against the Jags and Lions giving up 44 points apiece. This defense is one of the most fun to watch, with an aggressive ball hawking secondary, fast linebackers and young dynamic pass rush led by old man Suggs. The Raven’s D is currently ranked around No. 8 so should be available for you to snatch.


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